Technical paper/Credit risk
A sensitivity analysis of the alpha factor
In this paper, we investigate the alpha factor’s sensitivity to key model parameters under stylized portfolio assumptions in order to better understand its complex characteristics. Our analysis is based on the numerical simulation of alpha sensitivities…
Quantifying systemic risk using Bayesian networks
Creditworthiness of individual entities may offer an insight into systemic risk of financial markets
Interpretability of neural networks: a credit card default model example
Recently developed techniques aimed at answering interpretability issues in neural networks are tested and applied to a retail banking case
One bad apple: default risk at CCPs
One clearing member's disproportionately large position increases the credit risk for all CCP members
Costs of capital under credit risk
In cost-of-capital computations, credit risk is only taken into consideration at the level of the debt beta approach. We show that applications of the debt beta approach in company valuation suffer from unrealistic assumptions about the market index and…
Basel risk weight functions and forward-looking expected credit losses
The authors establish that the combination of lifetime ECL and the Basel Capital Adequacy Framework, which relies on a one-year horizon, results in capital overestimation. Alongside this finding, and in order to alleviate the problem, they propose two…
Credit valuation adjustment wrong-way risk in a Gaussian copula model
In this paper, we present an analytical expression for CVA with WWR under the assumption of the lognormally distributed trade value.
On probability of default and its relation to observed default frequency and a common factor
This paper considers a definition of through-the-cycle as independent from an economic state that can result in a time-varying TTC probability of default.
Asset correlation estimation for inhomogeneous exposure pools
This study investigates the systematic error that is made if the exposure pool underlying a default time series is assumed to be homogeneous when in reality it is not.
An advanced hybrid classification technique for credit risk evaluation
In this paper, the authors employ a hybrid approach to design a practical and effective CRE model based on a deep belief network (DBN) and the K-means method.
Optimal posting of collateral with recurrent neural networks
Pierre Henry-Labordère applies neural networks to a control problem approach for managing collateral
An efficient portfolio loss model
This paper develops a parsimonious model for evaluating portfolio credit derivatives dependent on aggregate loss.
Counterparty risk: credit valuation adjustment variability and value-at-risk
This paper proposes an efficient method to obtain the distribution of the CVA at a given risk horizon, from which risk measures such as the CVA VaR can be computed.
A statistical technique to enhance application scorecard monitoring
Application scoring plays a critical role in determining the future quality of a lender’s book. It is therefore important to monitor the performance of an application scorecard to ensure it performs as expected.
Credit portfolio stress testing using transition matrixes
In this paper, the authors propose a new methodology for modeling credit transition probability matrixes (TPMs) using macroeconomic factors.
Capital allocation under the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book
Quants propose an allocation method for internal model capital charges
Validation of the backtesting process under the targeted review of internal models: practical recommendations for probability of default models
This paper provides practical recommendations for the validation of the backtesting process under the targeted review of internal models (TRIM).
Loss given default estimation: a two-stage model with classification tree-based boosting and support vector logistic regression
In this paper, the authors using a data set composed of five Japanese regional banks, propose an loss given default estimation model using a two-stage model, classification tree-based boosting and support vector regression (SVR).
An optimized support vector machine intelligent technique using optimized feature selection methods: evidence from Chinese credit approval data
This paper focuses on feature selection methods for support vector machine (SVM) classifiers, checking their optimality by comparing them with some statistical and baseline methods.
Procyclicality and risk-based access: valuing the embedded credit default swap of employing bilateral credit limits in financial market infrastructures
In light of institutional knowledge, this paper presents the similarities between the survivor-pay component (Tranche 2) of the Canadian large-value transfer system (LVTS) and credit default swap (CDS) contracts.
Quantification of model risk in stress testing and scenario analysis
In this paper, the author's aim is to empirically analyze the numerical quantification of model risk, yielding exact buffers in currency amounts (for a given model uncertainty).