Technical paper/Credit risk
Financial and nonfinancial variables as long-horizon predictors of bankruptcy
This paper assesses the predictive ability of financial and nonfinancial variables for a long horizon in a large cross-sectional sample of Finnish firms
Modeling corporate customers’ credit risk considering the ensemble approaches in multiclass classification: evidence from Iranian corporate credits
This paper introduces a model which enables lenders to develop specific policies for credit granting by predicting the solvency and insolvency rates of their corporate clients.
Estimating credit risk parameters using ensemble learning methods: an empirical study on loss given default
This study investigates two well-established ensemble learning methods: Stochastic Gradient Boosting and Random Forest, and proposed two new ensembles.
The impact of loan-to-value on the default rate of residential mortgage-backed securities
This paper analyzes the validity of using the loan-to-value (LTV) ratio to explain the behavior of mortgage borrowers at an empirical level.
Comparing risk measures when aggregating market risk and credit risk using different copulas
The authors of this paper simulate realistic total bank return distributions by means of a top-down copula approach for different parameter settings.
The application of credit risk models to macroeconomic scenario analysis and stress testing
The authors demonstrate how different credit risk models can be efficiently implemented for scenario analysis and stress testing execution with concrete application examples.
Extended saddlepoint methods for credit risk measurement
This paper reviews and extends the saddlepoint methods currently available to measure credit risk.
Credit risk spillover between financials and sovereigns in the euro area, 2007–15
This paper proposes a method based on Granger causality to measure the level of contagion between financial institutions and sovereigns.
Dynamic credit score modeling with short-term and long-term memories: the case of Freddie Mac’s database
This paper investigates the two mechanisms of memory, short-term memory and long-term memory, in the context of credit risk assessment.
A framework for market, credit and transfer risk aggregation and stress testing
The authors develop a framework that consistently and fully integrates the market, credit and country transfer risks of a general portfolio of financial assets in a multi-period setup.
Market pricing of credit linked notes: the influence of the financial crisis
This paper analyzes whether the financial crisis of 2007–9 had an effect on the mispricing of CLNs.
Updating the option implied probability of default methodology
This paper updates the option implied probability of default (iPoD) approach recently suggested in the literature.
A mean-reverting scenario design model to create lifetime forecasts and volatility assessments for retail loans
The authors of this paper develop a modeling framework that can incorporate mean-reverting scenarios into any scenario-based forecasting model.
Loss distributions: computational efficiency in an extended framework
This paper contributes to the literature for mixture models by leveraging an efficient algorithm for computing the density function of the loss distribution and extending the model in two key areas: constructing the systemic variable from a continuous…
FVA for general instruments
Alexander Antonov, Bianchetti and Mihai develop a universal and efficient approach to numerical FVA calculation
Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review stress tests: is regression the only tool for loss projection?
The authors of this paper present a cross-sectional stress test analysis of major US banks.
Credit risk: taking fluctuating asset correlations into account
This paper puts forward an ensemble approach for asset correlations.
The robustness of estimators in structural credit loss distributions
This paper examines the performance of MM, ML and OLS estimators through Monte Carlo experiments for various sample sizes and correlation values when the true data is from non-Gaussian processes.
Default predictors in credit scoring: evidence from France’s retail banking institution
This paper presents the set-up of a behavioral credit-scoring model, and estimates such a model using an auto loan data set of one of the largest multinational financial institutions based in France.