Technical paper
VAR for fund managers
Investment management
Collateral damage
Credit risk
Analysing counterparty risk
In an attempt to improve on existing regulatory approaches to derivatives counterparty creditrisk, Eduardo Canabarro, Evan Picoult and Tom Wilde present a new method based on expectedpositive exposure (EPE).
Creating an op risk loss-collection framework
To meet the Basel II advanced measurement requirements and improve op risk management, firms must establish robust loss databases. Ulrich Anders and Jürgen Platz of Dresdner Bank in Frankfurt outline such a framework.
Correlation stress testing for value-at-risk
The correlation matrix is of vital importance for value-at-risk (VAR) modelsin the financial industry. Risk managers are often interested in stressing a subsetof market factors within large-scale risk systems containing hundreds ofmarket variables…
Evaluating credit risk models using loss density forecasts
The evaluation of credit portfolio risk models is an important issue for both banks and regulators. It is impeded by the scarcity of credit events, long forecasthorizons, and data limitations. To make efficient use of available information, the…
Analysing counterparty risk
In an attempt to improve on existing regulatory approaches to derivatives counterparty creditrisk, Eduardo Canabarro, Evan Picoult and Tom Wilde present a new method based on expectedpositive exposure (EPE). Using a one-factor conditional independence…
VAR: history or simulation?
Greg Lambadiaris, Louiza Papadopoulou, George Skiadopoulos and Yiannis Zoulis assess theperformance of historical and Monte Carlo simulation in calculating VAR, using data from theGreek stock and bond market. They find that while historical simulation…
On the slide
market trends
Both sides of the fence: a statistical and regulatory view of electricity risk
Ernst Eberlein and Gerhard Stahl analyse price series of 25 energy spot rates simultaneously using Lévy models. This model class allows the capture of stochastic behaviour of these financial instruments. The implications of this analysis will form the…
Unexpected recovery risk
For credit portfolio managers, the priority is to properly incorporate recovery rates into existingmodels. Here, Michael Pykhtin improves upon earlier approaches, allowing recovery rates todepend on the idiosyncratic part of a borrower's asset return, in…
Ultimate recoveries
Measuring recovery using the ultimate rate observed at emergence from bankruptcy may be conceptually desirable, but modelling it is difficult.
A false sense of security
Credit portfolio models often assume that recovery rates are independent of default probabilities. Here, Jon Frye presents empirical evidence showing that such assumptions are wrong. Using US historical default data, he shows that not only are recovery…
Ultimate recoveries
Measuring recovery using the ultimate rate observed at emergence from bankruptcy may be conceptually desirable, but modelling it is difficult. Craig Friedman and Sven Sandow tackle the problem by maximising the creditor’s utility function, constructed…
Probing granularity
Basel II
A false sense of security
Credit portfolio models often assume that recovery rates are independent of defaultprobabilities. Here, Jon Frye presents empirical evidence showing that such assumptions arewrong. Using US historical default data, he shows that not only are recovery…
Unexpected recovery risk
For credit portfolio managers, the priority is to properly incorporate recovery rates into existing models. Here, Michael Pykhtin improves upon earlier approaches, allowing recovery rates to depend on the idiosyncratic part of a borrower’s asset return,…
Valuing exploration and production projects
Lukens Energy Group’s Hugh Li sets out an option method for valuing exploration and production projects, using a practical example
Market-implied ratings
There has been much debate over the respective merits of credit ratings and market-based indicators. Ludovic Breger, Lisa Goldberg and Oren Cheyette present a new approach that tries to incorporate the benefits of both approaches.
Correlation evidence
Like ratings, default correlation is an area of fierce industry debate. But any fundamental, long-terminvestor searching for fair value in credit correlation will want to understand what the historical dataactually says.
Overcoming the hurdle
How should capital be allocated to different business lines in a financial institution? ThomasWilson explores this question from an investor's perspective by constructing a statisticalmodel that measures the risk of individual business types.