Technical paper

The probability approach to default probabilities

Default estimation for low-default portfolios has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II's internal ratings-based rules. Here, Nicholas Kiefer applies the probability approach to uncertainty and modelling to default…

Market-implied Archimedean copulas

Computations of implied copulas are a central element in producing loss distributions of bespoke portfolios and pricing their tranches. This process is made feasible by the availability of index tranche pricing data. Luigi Vacca shows how it is possible…

Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons

Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…

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