Original research
The impact of unconventional monetary policy shocks on the crude oil futures market
This paper examines how West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil price returns and volatilities respond to changes in US monetary policy.
Adjoint algorithmic differentiation tool support for typical numerical patterns in computational finance
This paper demonstrates the flexibility and ease in using C++ algorithmic differentiation (AD) tools based on overloading to numerical patterns (kernels) arising in computational finance.
Monte Carlo payoff smoothing for pricing autocallable instruments
This paper develops a Monte Carlo method to price instruments with discontinuous payoffs and non-smooth trigger functions, which allows a stable computation of Greeks via finite differences.
The quickest way to lose the money you cannot afford to lose: reverse stress testing with maximum entropy
This paper extends a technique devised by Saroka and Rebonato to “optimally” deform a yield curve in order to deal with a common and practically relevant class of optimization problems subject to linear constraints.
Optimal equity protection of Solvency II regulated portfolios
In the context of equity investments, this paper examines the relationship between the cost of acquiring protection (in the form of put option) and the reduction of capital charges that it entails. The paper develops the idea that Solvency II regulations…
Valuing streams of risky cashflows with risk-value models
Based on risk-value models this paper introduces a multi-period approach to the valuation of streams of risky cash flows.
Central counterparty resolution: an unresolved problem
This paper describes the current policy for recovery and resolution of CCPs and assesses the tool kit for resolution of them.
Nonlinear relationships in a logistic model of default for a high-default installment portfolio
This paper uses data on consumer credit along with generalized additive models to analyze nonlinear relationships and their effect on predicting the probability of default in the context of consumer credit scoring.
A risk-sensitive approach for stressed transition probability matrixes
In this paper, the authors outline a simulation-based methodology for the generation of stressed transition probability matrixes under the structural credit risk framework.
Initial margin with risky collateral
This paper explores the complication of calculating the IM amount requirement when collateral comprises risky assets in a parametric VaR framework. The authors show that the required IM amount can be calculated by solving a quadratic inequality.
The threat of privacy
This paper is the text of a keynote address by Charles M. Kahn, presented at the Financial Market Infrastructure Conference II: New Thinking in a New Era.
Evaluating the role of risk networks in risk identification, classification and emergence
This paper presents an evaluation of how risk interdependence affects the risk management process.
The impact of de-tiering in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system
The authors conduct a head-to-head comparison of central and bilateral clearing to evaluate the impact of market structure on market stability.
Interconnectedness risk and active portfolio management: the information-theoretic perspective
This paper extensively compares mutual-information-based networks with correlation-based networks on a stand-alone basis and in the framework of active investment strategies.
Optimal investment and financing with macroeconomic risk and loan guarantees
This paper considers an entrepreneur who has no assets in place but possesses an option to invest in a project incurring a lump-sum investment cost, of which a fraction must be financed by entering into an equity-for-guarantee swap.
A latent variable credit risk model comprising nonlinear dependencies in a sector framework with a stochastically dependent loss given default
This paper proposes a latent variable credit risk model for large loan portfolios. It employs the concept of nested Archimedean copulas to account for both a sector-type dependence structure and a copula-dependent stochastic loss given default (LGD).
The profit-and-loss attribution test
In this paper, the authors analyze the failure probabilities of the profit-and-loss attribution (PLA) test as defined in the final market risk standard published in January 2016 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision.
Governance and organizational requirements for effective model risk management
This paper expands on the foundation of model risk analytics to address the governance, organizational and human behavior challenges associated with enterprise MRM.
Tail protection for long investors: trend convexity at work
In this paper, the authors show that single-asset trend strategies have built-in convexity, provided their returns are aggregated over the right time scale, ie, that of the trend filter.
Speed and dimensions of trading
In this paper, two new portfolio statistics are introduced: ENT, which measures trading speed, and ENTD, which measures trading diversity. Together with vectors representing major trading directions, these provide new insight into the intrinsic…
Identifying complex core–periphery structures in the interbank market
This paper proposes a framework to identify the structure of a financial network and its evolution over time, and presents an application to an interbank market with complete actual data.
Issuer bias in corporate ratings toward financially constrained firms
This paper considers whether the rating agency attempts to mitigate the feedback effect through its rating actions. Using Moody’s issuer ratings over 1982–2009, the paper shows that firms with greater external financing constraints are less likely to be…
Optimal intraday power trading with a Gaussian additive process
This paper studies the problem of a financial agent wishing to maximize a constant relative risk-aversion expected utility of their terminal wealth while operating in an ID market.
A vine copula–GARCH approach to corporate exposure management
This paper applies vine copulas with GARCH marginals to the problem of capturing asset dependence and tail dynamics for currency and commodity exposures commonly found in portfolios of global corporates.