Scenario analysis
Climate stress tests are cold comfort for banks
Flaws in regulators’ methodology for gauging financial impact of climate change undermine transition efforts, argues modelling expert
Hedge fund’s bots hunt for ‘non-linear’ trade signals
Boutique investment firm Goose Hollow uses LLMs to scrape thousands of news sources, searching for links that others miss
Turbocharging tech for next-level risk analytics
As regulatory demands and market conditions constantly change, investing in robust risk analytics is becoming not only a business necessity, but an essential compliance requirement
US climate guidance stokes debate over defining material risks
Banks welcome flexibility, but it could lead to big divergence on climate risk management
Geopolitics is harsh terrain for FMIs
Idiosyncratic nature of disputes and flare-ups leaves exchange and infrastructure operators blending metrics with guesswork
Climate capital in the balance as EBA rejects green risk weights
European regulator suggests climate change must be factored into existing risk categories
Regulator warns against ‘happy endings’ for op risk wargames
Risk Live: Bankers say third parties should also be at the table when simulating crisis scenarios
Execution & process errors: banks try to get beyond blunderdome
Mistakes mean more data for reporting, models and scenarios. But do banks learn from them?
On cyber risk, regionals have no appetite for disruption
Smaller lenders fear outages and other IT bungles, as do regulators. So, what are they doing about it?
Apac banks put trust in pre-trade
Amid tougher trading conditions, Apac banks are making greater use of pre‑trade analytics to inform their strategies and reduce risk. But how successful are these tools?
Energy credit risk benefits from next-generation technology
Advances in energy credit risk technology are improving the accuracy and efficiency of the credit risk function, says credit risk technology expert
Sizing cyber: banks split on who owns and measures hack threats
G-Sibs split on risk modelling and management for IT disruption and infosec
Fed’s climate stress test whips up storm for banks
Long-awaited US climate risk exercise puts tough pressure on banks’ data and models
Smarter data: steering a course in volatile markets
Fixed income markets are entering a new era of turbulence. This paper outlines the challenges facing asset managers in this macro environment and how to overcome them through high-quality data and cutting-edge analytical tools that uncover alpha and…
Wanted: radical ideas for inflation modelling
Hedge funds echo Mervyn King’s calls for a new approach to inflation modelling post-2022 crisis
FSB: third of climate stress tests not tackling physical risk
Six jurisdictions conducted exercises only for transition risk
Ukraine nuclear scenarios: black enough for you?
A nuclear strike on Ukraine would open the door to the pit; our readers guessed how markets would fare, with surprising results
Scenario design for macrofinancial stress testing
The author presents an empirical approach to scenario design for selecting a stress scenario for international macrofinancial variables and compares this approach with a historical scenario approach.
US midterm election scenarios: a fright after Halloween
Republican control of Congress could deal “a sharp shock to markets”, analysis suggests
Barclays confronts ‘implausible’ macro risks
Talking Heads 2022: Bank is reaping rewards of sticking with its trading businesses, says macro head Lublinsky
How climate change may impact operational risk
This paper uses the ten laws of operational risk along with taxonomies for inadequacies or failures and their impacts, and it also draws parallels with past crises, in order to make systematic predictions.