Quantitative analysis
The one-year lag
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How good is your information?
Fraud, opaque accounting practices and incomplete data are unavoidable. Butare they factored into a credit risk forecast? An emerging class of models doesthe job by assuming incomplete information. Barra's Lisa Goldberg explains.
Corridor variance swaps
This article studies a recent variation of a variance swap called a corridor variance swap (CVS). For this swap, returns are not counted in the realised variance calculation if the reference index level is outside some specified corridor. CVSs allow…
What’s a basket worth?
Peter Laurence and Tai-Ho Wang take a significant step in the valuation of basket options with positive and fixed weights. These model all index options, price, cap or equal weighted. Departing from the usual Black-Scholes framework, the authors provide…
Come together
market graphics
Corridor variance swaps
This article studies a recent variation of a variance swap called a corridor variance swap (CVS). For this swap, returns are not counted in the realised variance calculation if the reference index level is outside some specified corridor. CVSs allow…
Bringing credit portfolio modelling to maturity
Michael Barco shows how to perform mark-to-market credit portfolio modelling by extendingthe well-known saddle-point technique, introducing spread and recovery rate volatility. Hethen tests his results on a fictitious portfolio, showing how asset…
Sensible and efficient capital allocation for credit portfolios
Michael Kalkbrener, Hans Lotter and Ludger Overbeck construct a new approach to economiccapital allocation, showing that three axioms uniquely determine a capital allocation scheme,and, more importantly, that any allocation satisfying the axioms is…
Quant of the year - Michael Gordy, US Federal Reserve Bank
Credit risk specialist who is highly influential with academics and practitioners alike.
Bringing credit portfolio modelling to maturity
Michael Barco shows how to perform mark-to-market credit portfolio modelling by extending the well-known saddle-point technique, introducing spread and recovery rate volatility. He then tests his results on a fictitious portfolio, showing how asset…
Calculating transfer risk using Monte Carlo
Marco van der Burgt constructs a model of emerging market transfer risk based on a country’s foreign exchange reserves that is combined with facility-dependent risk factors that determine counterparty exposure in the event of a moratorium. He then…
Mark up the scorecard
Sergio Scandizzo and Roberto Setola explore the application of a scorecard approach to the measurement of operational risk, assessing both its reliability as a risk-management tool and the practicalities of its implementation.
Shadow interest
Using a Vasicek process for the shadow rate, Viatcheslav Gorovoi and Vadim Linetsky develop an analytical solution for pricing zero-coupon bonds using eigenfunction expansions, and show how to calibrate their model to the Japanese bond market. This…
Index volatility surface via moment-matching techniques
Peter Lee, Limin Wang and Abdelkerim Karim present a basket construction technique using Gram-Charlier-Edgeworth expansions. They show how to express basket option skews and smiles in terms of its underlying components, and demonstrate how market…
Benchmarking asset correlations
Basel II stipulates that the asset correlation to be used in calibration of obligor risk weights is20%. Here, Alfred Hamerle, Thilo Liebig and Daniel Rösch use a parametric model to empirically obtain asset correlations from a large database of…
Economic capital – how much do you really need?
Economic capital is becoming the language of risk. While market, credit and operational risk have different determinants and use different methodologies, the levels of risk can all be summarised in a common dimension – the amount of economic capital…
Understanding the expected loss debate
The final draft of the new global Accord on bank regulatory capital – Basel II – has been delayed. A critical and unresolved issue is whether banks should include expected losses in their measure of credit risk. The IMF's Paul Kupiec reports on efforts…
The structure of credit risk: spread volatility and ratings transitions
Ratings-based models are widely used by firms making their own capital decisions and by policy-makers designing regulatory capital requirements. By ignoring fluctuations in spreads for given rating categories, the currentgeneration of ratings-based…
All your hedges in one basket
Leif Andersen, Jakob Sidenius and Susanta Basu present new techniques for single-tranche CDO sensitivity and hedge ratio calculations. Using factorisation of the copula correlation matrix, discretisation of the conditional loss distribution followed by a…
Using the grouped t-copula
Student-t copula models are popular, but can be over-simplistic when used to describe credit portfolios where the risk factors are numerous or dissimilar. Here, Stéphane Daul, Enrico De Giorgi, Filip Lindskog and Alexander McNeil construct a new,…
Pricing exotics under the smile
Masterclass – with JP Morgan
Benchmarking asset correlations
Basel II stipulates that the asset correlation to be used in calibration of obligor risk weights is 20%. Here, Alfred Hamerle, Thilo Liebig and Daniel Rösch use a parametric model to empirically obtain asset correlations from a large database of…
Operational and market risks of a regulated power utility
Victor Dvortsov and Ken Dragoon present an analytical method for including market and operational risks when estimating utility portfolio value-at-risk.