Default risk
Looming junk bond glut threatens high yield returns
US high yield issuance has soared in the past year, but an imminent wall of refinancings is raising longer-term concerns.
RMBS defaults still a worry for structured finance investors
Despite talk of economic recovery, structured finance investors in the US and Europe remain concerned about defaults and losses on RMBS deals, according to S&P research.
Z-Score architect launches new rating metrics: Edward Altman profile
Edward Altman, the high yield and credit risk expert, tells Credit that his new initiative for evaluating creditworthiness of non-financials has an error rate almost half that of the rating agencies.
Bilateral counterparty risk with application to CDSs
Previous research on credit valuation adjustments (CVAs) with correlation between underlying and counterparty default, including volatilities of both, assumed unilateral default risk. However, the crisis prompted counterparties to ask institutions to…
Continued high default rate in 2010 predicted by S&P
Standard & Poor’s (S&P) expects between 55 and 75 West European companies with speculative-grade credit ratings to default in 2010, continuing an above-average default rate.
Variance-covariance-based risk allocation in credit portfolios
Mikhail Voropaev proposes high-precision analytical approximation for variance-covariance-based risk allocation in a portfolio of risky assets. A general case of a single-period multi-factor Merton-type model with stochastic recovery is considered. The…
The hybrid saddlepoint method for credit portfolios
Anthony Owen, Alistair McLeod and Kevin Thompson derive a practical analytic approach, which they call the hybrid saddlepoint method, to calculate the credit loss distribution for a heterogeneous portfolio of correlated obligors
The domino effect
Corporates
Confidence intervals for corporate default rates
Rating agency default studies provide estimates of mean default rates over multiple time horizons but have never included estimates of the standard errors of the estimates. This is due, at least in part, to the challenge of accounting for the high degree…
Driven to distraction
Asset-backed securities
Confidence intervals for corporate default rates
Rating agency default studies provide estimates of mean default rates over multiple time horizons but have never included estimates of the standard errors of the estimates. This is due at least in part to the challenge of accounting for the high degree…
The probability approach to default probabilities
Default estimation for low-default portfolios has attracted attention as banks contemplate the requirements of Basel II's internal ratings-based rules. Here, Nicholas Kiefer applies the probability approach to uncertainty and modelling to default…