Credit risk
Understanding and predicting systemic corporate distress: a machine-learning approach
The authors construct a machine-learning-based early-warning system to predict, one year in advance, risks of systemic distress and demonstrate factors which can predict corporate distress.
Like your CSA dirty? It’ll cost more
Buy-side firms have to pay up if they want to post corporate bonds to their dealers, but prices vary
360° of climate: indices for every objective
This white paper explores a variety of climate strategy targeting objectives, including low carbon, fossil fuel-free and net zero to enable investors to respond to the risks and opportunities of the climate challenge.
The evolution of the fixed income tradable ecosystem: North American and European credit markets
Fixed income tradable indexes are designed to provide an efficient means to measure the bond market. This paper offers an introductory reference for these instruments and highlights their performance in recent market periods.
The changing face of credit portfolio management at banks
Faced with huge increases in capital charges in the coming months, banks will turn to credit portfolio management to support business decisions on origination, capital allocation and risk transfer
The dynamics of XVA usage and other themes that characterise trading in the energy markets
The application of XVAs for derivatives transactions, the need for sophisticated modelling and the growing application of machine learning are among six themes explored in this white paper – all of which significantly impact trading in the energy markets.
Banks slam zombie floors in Basel endgame proposal
US regulators double down on capital floors despite clampdown on internal models
Approaching menace: how financial firms are tackling emerging risks
This Risk.net report, based on a survey of 100 enterprise risk professionals in financial firms, assesses the nature of emerging risks, how well firms can assimilate emerging risks within existing risk management frameworks, and the extent to which…
For the capital markets, every risk playbook needs to implement these six themes
This white paper outlines six risk management themes that we think should be a part of any risk playbook and which can serve financial institutions well in preparation for the uncertain future that lies ahead.
Default forecasting based on a novel group feature selection method for imbalanced data
The authors construct a group feature selection method which combines optimal instance selection with weighted comprehensive precision in an effort to improve the performance of prediction models in relation to defaulting firms.
PGIM trades reinforce Citi’s credit options stronghold
Counterparty Radar: US retail funds’ aggregate notional drops to lowest levels since late 2020 in Q1
Trading risks and a spotlight on XVA
Panellists at Risk Live Europe 2023 discussed the usefulness, limitations and outlook for valuation adjustments
Norinchukin’s credit RWAs up 31% on early Basel III opt-in
Bank’s standardised charges surge 19-fold following overhaul of models’ scope and parameters
Five banks lowballed loan losses in latest DFAST
Banks project $23bn smaller hit to loan portfolios, with Wells Fargo and Citi the most off-target
Partial relief for synthetic securitisation in final EU rules
Internal model banks will see punitive multiplier reduced, but standardised banks miss out
Plumb job: can Basel III unblock US credit risk transfer?
Deals from G-Sibs have slowed in recent years due to regulatory confusion over capital relief
Lenders try to move fast and fix things in UK BTL market
Relaxing stress tests when buy-to-let clients switch banks to remortgage is key to avoiding a credit squeeze
Scope of CDS anti-fraud rule raises concerns
Funds holding bond and swaps positions at risk under new SEC rule, warn lawyers
The impact of treasury operations and off-balance-sheet credit business on commercial bank credit risk
Using a vine copula, he authors demonstrate that global systemically important banks face lower credit risk using data from commercial banks based on three risk factors.
Benchmarking machine learning models to predict corporate bankruptcy
Based on a comprehensive sample, the authors benchmark machine learning models in the prediction of financial distress of publicly traded US firms, with gradient-boosted tress outperforming other models in one-year-ahead forecasts.
Bank of the West brings C$730m in loan provisions to BMO
Acquired book comes with 2.5x the quarterly charges booked by BMO standalone
First Citizens leads regional bank rush for riskless assets
Share of 0% risk-weighted assets increases at small banks for first time in seven quarters
A modified hybrid feature-selection method based on a filter and wrapper approach for credit risk forecasting
This paper proposes the chi-squared with recursive feature elimination method: a means of feature-selection which aims to improve classification performance using fewer features.
Small and medium-sized enterprises’ time to default: an analysis using an improved mixture cure model with time-varying covariates
The authors put forward a method using a support vector machine to enhance the exploration of nonlinear covariate effects if SMEs never default while also considering time-varying and fixed covariates for the incidence and latency of an event.