Technical paper
Ten laws of operational risk
This paper sets out ten laws that govern the behavior of operational risk relating to the occurrence and detection/duration of events; the rapidity with which firms suffer losses; the lags in crystallization of losses; and internal and external drivers…
Quantification of regulatory capital for management of operational risk in banks: study from an emerging market economy
This paper studies the various methodologies used by an Indian bank in its operational risk management activities: these include loss database analysis, risk control self-assessment and key risk indicator (KRI) identification.
Introducing two mixing fractions to a lognormal local-stochastic volatility model
In this paper, the authors introduce two mixing fractions that can be controlled separately to apply impact to the volatility-of-volatility and the correlation in a lognormal LSV model.
A Libor market model including credit risk under the real-world measure
The authors present a methodology to generate future scenarios of interest rates for different credit ratings under a real-world probability measure.
Semi-closed-form prices of barrier options in the Hull-White model
New pricer for options with time-dependent barrier shown to be computationally efficient and stable
What’s so special about time series momentum?
We find that the buy-and-hold (B&H) strategy for the S&P 500 index (^GSPC) for January 1950–April 2019 had a significantly higher return than that produced by time series momentum (TSM). However, TSM was superior in terms of the Sharpe ratio due to its…
Strangle to resuscitate: evidence from India
This study examines the performance of two strangle strategies at different legs to find the best strategy for consistent profit generation when trading on the Indian stock market index Nifty.
Brazil’s BM&F in 1999: a central counterparty near-failure case?
The authors argue that, despite some concerns on systemic risk expressed by high-level Banco Central do Brasil officers, the (potential) defaults of Marka and FonteCindam would not have been sufficient to lead BM&F to a failure.
Is there anybody out there? Detecting operational outages from Large Value Transfer System transaction data
This paper develops a method to identify operational outages of participants in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS).
Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle
The author assesses the quantitative effects of the recent proposal for more robust bank capital adequacy.
Modeling loss given default regressions
The authors investigate the puzzle in the literature that various parametric loss given default (LGD) statistical models perform similarly, by comparing their performance in a simulation framework.
Monetary policy uncertainty and jumps in advanced equity markets
The authors analyze the role of monetary policy uncertainty in predicting jumps in nine advanced equity markets.
Optimal reinsurance with expectile under the Vajda condition
In this paper, the author revisits optimal reinsurance problems by minimizing the adjusted value of the liability of an insurer, which encompasses a risk margin. The risk margin is determined by expectile.
Client engineering of XVA
A client’s guide to reducing XVA in times of need
KVA as a transfer of wealth
A capital valuation adjustment designed to preserve a firm’s value to shareholders is introduced
Finding the nearest covariance matrix: the foreign exchange market case
The authors consider the problem of finding a valid covariance matrix in the foreign exchange market given an initial nonpositively semidefinite (non-PSD) estimate of such a matrix.
Pricing multiple barrier derivatives under stochastic volatility
This work generalizes existing one- and two-dimensional pricing formulas with an equal number of barriers to a setting of n dimensions and up to two barriers in the presence of stochastic volatility.
Pricing path-dependent Bermudan options using Wiener chaos expansion: an embarrassingly parallel approach
In this work, the authors propose a new policy iteration algorithm for pricing Bermudan options when the payoff process cannot be written as a function of a lifted Markov process.
Supervisory bank risk early warning modeling: an examiner’s first line of defense
The results of this paper show that robust forward-looking statistical models are superior to backward-looking assessments of supervisory compliance, which could lead to less regulatory burden when integrated into the examination process, particularly at…
The impact of data aggregation and risk attributes on stress testing models of mortgage default
In this paper, the authors investigate how data aggregation and risk attributes affect the development and performance of stress testing models by studying residential mortgage loan defaults.
Stress testing household debt
The authors estimate a county-level model of household delinquency and use it to conduct “stress tests” of household debt.
Zooming in on equity factor crowding
A measure for crowding in trades is derived from supply and demand imbalances
Finite difference schemes with exact recovery of vanilla option prices
A model unifies the classic local vol and binomial trees to accurately price options
Should the central bank issue e-money?
Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? The authors discuss how e-money technology changes the trade-off between public and private provision, and the trade-off between e-money and a central bank’s…