Original research
Does board diversity mitigate firm risk-taking? Empirical evidence from China
The authors explore the relationship between firm risk and both demographic and cognitive-oriented board diversity.
Instabilities in Cox proportional hazards models in credit risk
The authors explore possible instabilities in applying Cox PH models and conduct numerical studies to demonstrate the same linear specification error from APC models an occur in Cox PH estimation.
Banking on personality: psychometrics and consumer creditworthiness
This paper uses empirical methods to investigate how psychometric data can be used to augment traditional credit models.
An experimental study of capacity remuneration mechanisms in the electricity industry
The authors investigate the efficiency properties of energy market designs with regard new investments, reductions in unserved energy frequency and energy prices of a generic capacity remuneration mechanism impervious to the forward capacity market.
Locational arbitrage strategies for Shanghai crude futures
The authors investigate crude oil futures introduced on the Shanghai International Energy Exchange in March 2018 and the locational trading strategies they can provide and put forward an example of locational arbitrage hedged against foreign risk.
Scaling up hydrogen production in France: learning rates versus economies of scale strategies
The authors investigate hydrogen production infrastructure in an effort to offer a vision for electrolyzer planning which avoids sunk costs at an early stage.
Quantifying the economic benefits of payments modernization: the case of Canada’s large-value payment system
The authors analyze the economic benefits of the replacement of Canada’s large-value transfer system (LVTS) with the new system, Lynx.
Sovereign credit risk modeling using machine learning: a novel approach to sovereign credit risk incorporating private sector and sustainability risks
The authors investigate the effect of spillover effects from private sector risks on sovereign debt risk and the impact of rising sustainability risks on sovereign credit risk using the XGBoost classification algorithm and model interpretability…
A dynamic program under Lévy processes for valuing corporate securities
The authors design and solve an extended structural model that accommodates arbitrary Lévy dynamics for the underlying firm’s asset value, realistic debt payment schedules, multiple seniority classes and various intangible assets.
The relationship between crude oil futures and exchange rates in the context of the Covid-19 shock: a tale of two markets
The authors investigate the high-frequency intraday return and volatility transmission between crude oil futures prices and exchange rates during the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic in the Brent and INE markets.
Value-at-risk models: a systematic review of the literature
The authors conduct a systematic literature review of value-at-risk models to determine which models are most often used and whether any change in model popularity occurred after the 2007-9 financial crisis.
A theory for combinations of risk measures
This paper investigates combinations of risk measures under no restrictive assumption on the set of alternatives, obtaining results regarding the preservation of properties and acceptance sets for these combinations of risk measures.
Mitigating margin procyclicality: the effectiveness of anti-procyclicality measures during the Covid-19 stress event
This paper analyzes the effectiveness of APC measures implemented by central counterparties for clearing member and client margins, with effectiveness sensitive to the details of calibration and type of portfolios to which the measure is applied.
Payment coordination and liquidity efficiency in wholesale payments systems
The authors investigate the two settlement mechanisms found in the Lynx payments system, finding that the highest liquidity efficiency is achieved if all payments were sent to the mechanism allowing offsetting.
Managerial connections and corporate risk-taking: evidence from the Great Recession
Using the the 2007-9 Great Recession as an example, the authors investigate the relationship between managers’ connections, corporate risk-taking and corporate performance during a period of crisis.
A risk-based internal audit methodology for Greek local government organizations
The authors propose a methodology for evaluating possible risks when preparing an audit plan in Greek municipalities, with applicability beyond this area.
Climate-policy-relevant sectors and credit risk
This paper explores the relationship between banks exposed to climate-policy-relevant sectors and credit risk, finding that banks exposed to higher carbon emitting sectors are subject to greater credit risk than those exposed to less carbon emitting…
Dynamic class-imbalanced financial distress prediction based on case-based reasoning integrated with time weighting and resampling
The authors put forward a dynamic class-imbalanced CBR FDP model which is shown, using data from Chinese listed companies, to outperform static and dynamic CBR FDP models without resampling or time weighting.
Calibration alternatives to logistic regression and their potential for transferring the statistical dispersion of discriminatory power into uncertainties in probabilities of default
This paper compares four calibration approaches to linear logistic regression in credit risk estimation and proposes two new single-parameter families of differentiable functions as candidates for this regression.
Estimating risks of European option books using neural stochastic differential equation market models
The authors investigate how arbitrage-free neural stochastic differential equation market models can produce realistic scenarios for the joint dynamics of multiple European options on a single underlying and demonstrate how they can be used as a risk…
Value-at-risk and the global financial crisis
The authors investigate the forecasting ability of bank VaR estimates around the 2007-9 financial crisis using daily data from seven international banks, finding systemic overstating of VaR either side of the financial crisis and mixed performance during…
Measuring tail operational risk in univariate and multivariate models with extreme losses
The authors consider operational risk models and derive limit behaviors for the value-at-risk and conditional tail expectation of aggregate operational risks in such models.
Audit committee characteristics and the audit report lag in Greece
The authors review empirical studies investigating the effect of audit committee characteristics on audit report lag, using Greece as an example. and finding that committee diligence is associated with a shorter report audit lag.
Measuring the systemic importance of Chinese banks: a comparison of different risk measurement models
This paper uses DebtRank, ΔCoVaR and MES to measure the systemic importance of banks, finding that DebtRank performs best from the perspectives of size and interconnectedness.