Original research
Debt–liquidity shock risk: intertemporal effects and probability measures
This paper analyzes how the yield of government securities may be managed in order to save costs in the face of the risk of a liquidity shock.
Analytical method of computing stressed value-at-risk with conditional value-at-risk
The author of this paper develops an analytical form of stressed value-at-risk (analytical SVaR), using conditional value-at-risk (CoVaR).
The temporal dimension of risk
This paper mathematically formalizes the concept of a temporal path-dependent risk measure in order to capture the risk associated with the temporal dimension of a stochastic process.
Granularity, a blessing in disguise: transaction cycles within real-time gross settlement systems
The authors of this paper take us into the world of granular time series data.
Smile with the Gaussian term structure model
This paper presents a natural extension of the LGM that keeps the affine structure and generates an implied volatility smile.
Error analysis in Fourier methods for option pricing
The authors provide a bound for the error committed when using a Fourier method to price European options, when the underlying follows an exponential Lévy dynamic.
On optimizing risk exposures with trend-following strategies in currency overlay portfolios
This paper proposes using an optimization mechanism in the currency overlay portfolio construction process.
Optimal closing-price strategy: peculiarities and practicalities
The authors of this paper derive an optimal trading strategy that benchmarks the closing price in a mean–variance optimization framework.
How risk managers should fix tracking error volatility and value-at-risk constraints in asset management
In this paper, the author determines an optimal value for a set of limits composed of the lower limit on TEV, the upper limit on TEV and the upper limit on VaR.
Interbank network and regulation policies: an analysis through agent-based simulations with adaptive learning
The authors develop an agent-based model to study the impact of a broad range of regulation policies on the banking system.
Shortfall deviation risk: an alternative for risk measurement
In this paper, the authors propose the SDR risk measure to consider the degree of dispersion of an extreme loss in addition to its expected value.
Operational risk models and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimation
In this paper, the author studies how asymptotic normality does, or does not, hold for common severity distributions in operational risk models.
Risk reduction in a time series momentum trading strategy
In this paper, the authors investigate the four most commonly used risk measures – return volatility, beta, value-at-risk and stressed value-at-risk – of a TSM trading strategy.
On the role of structural breaks in identifying the dynamic conditional linkages between stock and commodity markets
In this paper, the authors explore the time-varying linkages between two strategic commodities covering the energy sector (crude oil and natural gas) and the QE Al Rayan Islamic Index over the period March 15, 2011–December 25, 2014.
Modeling Alberta power prices through fundamentals
The authors of this paper model medium- and long-term Alberta power prices by identifying the primary price drivers and characterizing their dynamics in an engineering-based bottom-up model.
Scaling by the square-root-of-time rule: an empirical investigation using five market indexes
This paper analyzes five composite stock indexes to determine the different behaviors of scaling across markets.
Calibration of local correlation models to basket smiles
The authors build a whole family of local correlation models by combining the particle method with a new, simple idea.
Insights into robust optimization: decomposing into mean–variance and risk-based portfolios
The authors of this paper aim to demystify portfolios selected by robust optimization by looking at limiting portfolios in the cases of both large and small uncertainty in mean returns.
A prudent loss given default estimation for mortgages
The author of this paper proposes a prudent methodology to correct for potential biases in LGD estimations due to historical price appreciations, appraisal biases and wear-and-tear or potential damage to the house.
Optimal B-robust posterior distributions for operational risk
The aim of this paper is to integrate prior information into a robust parameter estimation via OBR-estimating functions.
Zonal merit-order effects of wind generation development on day-ahead and real-time electricity market prices in Texas
This paper uses a regression-based approach to explore the impact of wind generation development on wholesale electricity prices in the ERCOT market.
A quick tool to forecast value-at-risk using implied and realized volatilities
The authors propose a naive model to forecast ex ante value-at-risk (VaR), using a shrinkage estimator between realized volatility estimated on past return time series as well as implied volatility quoted in the market.
Delta-hedged gains and risk-neutral moments
The authors investigate the underperformance of delta-hedged option portfolios in relation to ex ante moments of the stock market’s return distribution.
Equal risk allocation with carry, value and momentum
The authors of this paper analyze an equal-weight portfolio of global cross-asset-class risk factor exposures.