Original research
Brazil’s BM&F in 1999: a central counterparty near-failure case?
The authors argue that, despite some concerns on systemic risk expressed by high-level Banco Central do Brasil officers, the (potential) defaults of Marka and FonteCindam would not have been sufficient to lead BM&F to a failure.
Is there anybody out there? Detecting operational outages from Large Value Transfer System transaction data
This paper develops a method to identify operational outages of participants in the Canadian Large Value Transfer System (LVTS).
Bank leverage and capital bias adjustment through the macroeconomic cycle
The author assesses the quantitative effects of the recent proposal for more robust bank capital adequacy.
Modeling loss given default regressions
The authors investigate the puzzle in the literature that various parametric loss given default (LGD) statistical models perform similarly, by comparing their performance in a simulation framework.
Monetary policy uncertainty and jumps in advanced equity markets
The authors analyze the role of monetary policy uncertainty in predicting jumps in nine advanced equity markets.
Optimal reinsurance with expectile under the Vajda condition
In this paper, the author revisits optimal reinsurance problems by minimizing the adjusted value of the liability of an insurer, which encompasses a risk margin. The risk margin is determined by expectile.
Finding the nearest covariance matrix: the foreign exchange market case
The authors consider the problem of finding a valid covariance matrix in the foreign exchange market given an initial nonpositively semidefinite (non-PSD) estimate of such a matrix.
Pricing multiple barrier derivatives under stochastic volatility
This work generalizes existing one- and two-dimensional pricing formulas with an equal number of barriers to a setting of n dimensions and up to two barriers in the presence of stochastic volatility.
Pricing path-dependent Bermudan options using Wiener chaos expansion: an embarrassingly parallel approach
In this work, the authors propose a new policy iteration algorithm for pricing Bermudan options when the payoff process cannot be written as a function of a lifted Markov process.
Supervisory bank risk early warning modeling: an examiner’s first line of defense
The results of this paper show that robust forward-looking statistical models are superior to backward-looking assessments of supervisory compliance, which could lead to less regulatory burden when integrated into the examination process, particularly at…
The impact of data aggregation and risk attributes on stress testing models of mortgage default
In this paper, the authors investigate how data aggregation and risk attributes affect the development and performance of stress testing models by studying residential mortgage loan defaults.
Stress testing household debt
The authors estimate a county-level model of household delinquency and use it to conduct “stress tests” of household debt.
Should the central bank issue e-money?
Should a central bank take over the provision of e-money, a circulable electronic liability? The authors discuss how e-money technology changes the trade-off between public and private provision, and the trade-off between e-money and a central bank’s…
Evaluating cyclic risk propagation through an organization
Many large organizations have risk that propagates because of the dependencies between their various major organizational components. This paper addresses when cycles of dependencies exist in an organization or system of systems.
Smaller drawdowns, higher average and risk-adjusted returns for equity portfolios, using options and power-log optimization based on a behavioral model of investor preferences
The authors use a power-log utility optimization algorithm based on a behavioral model of investor preferences, along with either a call or a put option overlay, to reverse the negative skewness of monthly Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) index returns…
On extensions of the Barone-Adesi and Whaley method to price American-type options
This paper provides an efficient and accurate hybrid method to price American standard options in certain jump-diffusion models and American barrier-type options under the Black–Scholes framework.
Toward reducing the operational risk of emerging technologies adoption in central counterparties through end-to-end testing
This paper discusses the software-testing challenges of traditional central counterparties as well as the risks, biases and problems related to new technologies. It also outlines a set of requirements for an end-to-end validation and verification…
The European intraday electricity market: a modeling based on the Hawkes process
This paper deals with the modeling of trading activity on the European electricity intraday market by a self-exciting point process.
Concentration in cleared derivatives: the case for broadening access to direct central counterparty clearing
In this paper, the authors explore the benefits and challenges of encouraging major end-users of derivatives to become direct clearing members of central counterparties (CCPs).
Does the source of information influence depositors’ withdrawal intentions during operational events?
The objective of this paper is to identify whether depositors’ intentions to withdraw funds during operational risk events differ based on the source of information.
A FAVAR modeling approach to credit risk stress testing and its application to the Hong Kong banking industry
In this paper, a credit risk stress testing model based on the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach is proposed to project credit risk loss under stressed scenarios.
Too much, too young: improving the client clearing mandate
We present new evidence of the distribution of risk in client portfolios and use this to motivate clearing policy improvements.
The liquefied natural gas spot market and valuation of the rerouting option
The goal of this paper is twofold: (1) to describe the new outlook of LNG markets, which has become more and more spot-centric, with Asian LNG futures bringing transparency to spot and forward prices; and (2) to address the valuation of the rerouting…
Performance of value-at-risk averaging in the Nordic power futures market
The authors investigate the performance of various value-at-risk (VaR) models in the context of the highly volatile Nordic power futures market, examining whether simple averages of models provide better results than the individual models themselves.