Technical paper/Probability of default (PD)
Uncovering PD/LGD liaisons
Francisco Sanchez, Roland Ordovas, Elena Martinez and Manuel Vega consider the presence of correlation between default and recovery through the familiar variance of loss formula. Business cycle dependence permits a neat decomposition of the variance…
Quantifying operational risk
This is the fifth of Charles Smithson's latest series of Class Notes, which will run in alternate issues of Risk through to the end of 2004. Class Notes is an educational series, designed to pull together the threads of recent developments and thinking…
PD estimates for Basel II
One of the main issues banks will have to face to comply with the new Basel II internal ratings-based approach is to prove that the long-run average probabilities of default they assign to their clients, which will be used as the basis for regulatory…
PD estimates for Basel II
One of the main issues banks will have to face to comply with the new Basel II internal ratings-based approach is to prove that the long-run average probabilities of default they assign to their clients, which will be used as the basis for regulatory…
Overcoming the hurdle
How should capital be allocated to different business lines in a financial institution? ThomasWilson explores this question from an investor's perspective by constructing a statisticalmodel that measures the risk of individual business types.
Overcoming the hurdle
How should capital be allocated to different business lines in a financial institution? Thomas Wilson explores this question from an investor’s perspective by constructing a statistical model that measures the risk of individual business types. The…
Op risk modelling for extremes
Part 2: Statistical methods In this second of two articles, Rodney Coleman, of Imperial College London, continues his demonstration of the uncertainty in measuring operational risk from small samples of loss data.
Avoiding pro-cyclicality
David Cosandey and Urs Wolf argue that, for small to medium-sized enterprises, Basel II is pro-cyclical because of a double-counting of the risks. They present two main directions for possible capital rules that would circumvent the pro-cyclicality…
Probing granularity
The granularity adjustment, which adjusts risk weightings for credit portfolio diversification, is one of Basel II’s key modelling assumptions. Here, Tom Wilde uncovers a weakness in this assumption arising from the differences in the underlying credit…
IRB approach explained
At the end of this month, the consultation period for the new Basel Accord on bank capital will end. We have prepared a technical section this month devoted to various issues surrounding Basel II. In the first paper, Tom Wilde sheds light on the…
The long and the short of it
Investment management
Reconcilable differences
H Ugur Koyluoglu and Andrew Hickman explore the common ground between the new credit risk models and the implications for risk management and regulatory capital reform.