Value-at-risk (VAR)
Morgan Stanley incurs two VAR breaches
The latest backtesting exceptions put the bank one step closer to triggering a capital requirement hike
VAR multiplier hike sends UniCredit’s IMA charges up 23%
Market volatility following the invasion of Ukraine one of the drivers behind the increase
Danske, Deutsche and PNC pin SVAR to Covid-19
Most global banks continue to use the global financial crisis to stress-test their portfolios
JP Morgan leads US banks on surging VAR capital charges
Requirements connected to commodity positions jumped 426% in the first quarter
No soft landings in flight to safety from Russia
Impact of Ukraine invasion hit bank balance sheets hard; its effects look set to continue
JP Morgan’s internal VAR hit 10-year high in March
CVA’s credit risk component split from VAR measure following credit spreads widening at some counterparties
Nomura switches to lower-confidence VAR model
Internal measure of potential market loss brings bank in line with the likes of JP Morgan and BofA
Oil value-at-risk forecasts: a filtered semiparametric approach
This paper proposes the GARCH model combined with the Cornish–Fisher expansion for the oil VaR forecast.
RBI’s market risk gauges go haywire on Ukraine war fallout
Portfolio reshuffling helps Austrian bank contain RWA impact
BNP Paribas notches three VAR breaches in Q1
Latest count puts bank on cusp of capital penalty
Fortunes of VAR: dealers decry effect of war on risk models
European banks with large Russian derivatives exposures face risk of backtesting exceptions – and higher capital requirements
NatWest’s market RWAs up 8% on higher VAR multiplier
Bank incurred regulatory backtesting exceptions amid heightened market volatility
Market volatility weighs on UBS
Higher VAR and SVAR charges lifted market RWAs by $2.9bn in Q1
Goldman’s VAR climbs to $98 million in Q1
Commodity and interest rate risk push average VAR to its highest reading since 2020
EU banks racked up VAR breaches in 2021
Crédit Agricole and ING Bank hit with higher multipliers after exception count rises
Lloyds’ IMA RWAs up 43% in run-up to Ibor switch
VAR multiplier and RNIV charges rose in 2021 on account of transition risk
The importance of window size: a study on the required window size for optimal-quality market risk models
In this paper the authors study different moving-window lengths for value-at-risk evaluation, and also address subjectivity in choosing the window size by testing change point detection algorithms.
US unit of Barclays close to a VAR breach in Q4
Largest loss-to-VAR ratio at the firm was highest among 10 US intermediate holding companies
Estimating value-at-risk using quantile regression and implied volatilities
In this paper the authors propose a semi-parametric, parsimonious value-at-risk forecasting model based on quantile regression and readily available market prices of option contracts from the over-the-counter foreign exchange interbank market.
StanChart reports first VAR breach since Q2 2020
Three exceptions recorded in the fourth quarter put the bank one step away from a higher capital requirement
FRTB capital quirk for sovereign bonds bewilders banks
EU treatment of govvies under internal models is worse than standardised approaches
Top US banks record 14 VAR breaches
JPM, Morgan Stanley, BofA, Citi, Goldman and State Street wrong-footed in volatile end to 2021
JP Morgan incurs eight VAR breaches, triggering capital hike
Largest trading loss in Q4 reached 207% of the bank’s VAR limit
SocGen cut trading VAR by a third in Q4
Trading risk gauge shrinks to lowest in 17 years