Modelling
UN climate risk chief calls for shorter-term stress tests
But banks say heavy modelling demands will take time to respond to adequately
Europe’s lenders sail into uncharted waters of the banking book
Regulators are pushing banks to map their credit spread risk. Here be dragons?
Liquidity risk hits multi-year highs at both CME divisions
Changes to clearing member exposures and portfolio composition drive increases
OCC liquidity risk doubles to all-time high in Q2
Concentration of activity around June expiration responsible for record rise
The impact of emerging risk on credit portfolio management
Bank credit portfolio managers are increasingly finding that non-financial risks, such as cyber risk and climate risk, are falling under the remit of credit portfolio management. This will also be impacted by the upcoming Basel III Final Reforms, which…
AgBank’s regulatory VAR hits record high in first half
Chinese bank’s market risk up by over a third to highest level in a decade
Norinchukin’s RWAs up 21% as Basel III formulas react to market volatility
Market charges up 230% in harsh test of new standardised approaches
Comerica’s VAR multiplier spikes following eight breaches in Q2
Worst one-day trading loss at Dallas-based company was six times as large as its forecast
Goldman most threatened by Fed’s rejig of modelled capital charges
End of credit risk modelling and scaling up of SCB’s role could tip six US banks below minimum requirements
A two-stage nonlinear approach for modeling hourly spot power prices with an application to spot market risk valuation of the power yield of a solar array in Germany
This paper combines a seasonal autoregressive moving average model with a Markov regime-switching model approach for power spot prices, allowing intraday and weekly seasonalities to be incorporated.
Zions model change reverses positive EVE projections
Estimated impact of interest rate shocks up to 17.7pp higher under adjusted assumptions
The strange effect of US clampdown on FRTB models
Ban on internal models for trading book default risk could provide some banks with unexpected capital relief
How small and medium-sized banks can enhance deposits modelling frameworks
Recent events have called into question the reliability of deposits as a primary source of funding for small and medium-sized banks. Stickiness of deposits that generations of bankers had counted on suddenly seem ephemeral
Deposit repricing shifts Zions’ IRR outlook
The bank reckons high pass-through of Fed hikes means its rate-shock exposure is lower than under standard modelling
Wholesale credit modelling software of the year: Moody’s Analytics
Moody’s Analytics has won Wholesale credit modelling software of the year at the Risk Technology Awards 2023 thanks to its excellent credit scoring models and solutions that address the diverse requirements of the wholesale market
Sizing cyber: banks split on who owns and measures hack threats
G-Sibs split on risk modelling and management for IT disruption and infosec
Op Risk Benchmarking: Inside the G-Sibs
New initiative scrutinises op risk measurement and management practices at the world’s largest banks
US banks’ stress-test projections stray further from Fed’s in 2023
Average gap between Fed- and bank-estimated depletions more than double from previous two DFASTs
Five banks lowballed loan losses in latest DFAST
Banks project $23bn smaller hit to loan portfolios, with Wells Fargo and Citi the most off-target
Climate risk models and metrics: what works and what doesn’t?
Panellists at Risk Live Europe 2023 discussed what has been achieved so far in climate risk stress-testing and modelling, alongside what needs tackling next
NSCC member received record $42bn cash call in Q1
Largest payment obligation was 22% larger than previous quarter
The factor Heath-Jarrow-Morton term structure
A framework for rates that links real-world and risk-neutral measures is presented
Liquidity risk hits record high at CME
Heightened market volatility in Q1 pushes F&O’s worst-case payment obligation up 13%
Risk managers mull Basel-style climate standards
Risk Live: Splintered approach to stress-testing across jurisdictions “very, very worrying”, says risk expert