Loss distribution
Comparative analysis of credit risk models for loan portfolios
In this paper, the authors compare credit risk models that are used for loan portfolios, both from a theoretical perspective and via simulation studies.
Ridiculous, flawed, too diverse: op risk models under fire
Regulators want more consistency - and some are questioning AMA
Calculation of aggregate loss distributions
Research Papers
Accelerated ensemble Monte Carlo simulation
Traditional vanilla methods of Monte Carlo simulation can be extremely time-consuming if accurate estimation of the loss distribution is required. Kevin Thompson and Alistair McLeod show that the ensemble Monte Carlo method, introduced here,…
Market-implied Archimedean copulas
Computations of implied copulas are a central element in producing loss distributions of bespoke portfolios and pricing their tranches. This process is made feasible by the availability of index tranche pricing data. Luigi Vacca shows how it is possible…
Market-implied Archimedean copulas
Computations of implied copulas are a central element in producing loss distributions of bespoke portfolios and pricing their tranches. This process is made feasible by the availability of index tranche pricing data. Luigi Vacca shows how it is possible…
Unbiased risk-neutral loss distributions
Luigi Vacca introduces entropy maximisation (ME) to derive portfolio loss probabilities that are consistent with standard tranche prices on a credit default swap index. Tranche prices that are calculated using ME are free of arbitrage. A numerical…
Evaluating credit risk models using loss density forecasts
The evaluation of credit portfolio risk models is an important issue for both banks and regulators. It is impeded by the scarcity of credit events, long forecasthorizons, and data limitations. To make efficient use of available information, the…
Accord preparations: the rest is yet to come
While the debates have raged for months about many aspects of the proposed Basel II Accord, on some points there has been relative silence, in particular with regard to the seeming overreliance on statistical techniques.
Enhancing CreditRisk+
Of the various analytical approaches to credit portfolio modelling, CreditRisk+ has become the most popular due to its tractability. However, the model suffers from the restrictive assumption of sector independence. Moreover, the recursion relation for…
KPMG Study highlights regional differences in Basel implementation
According to a recently released global study by the consulting arm of KPMG, the the international auditing firm, there are significant differences in how financial institutions in the US and Europe are preparing for the coming Basel Accord revisions.
Fitch upgrades OpVar tool for operational risk
Fitch Ratings has added a range of new services to its OpVar software suite, an operational risk management quantification tool. Version 5.0, scheduled for release in March, now offers an enhanced data collection module and improved data management…
OpVar 4.2 unveiled
New York-based operational risk quantification firm OpVantage - a division of Fitch Risk Management - has launched version 4.2 of its OpVar operational risk product suite. The suite allows users to collect op risk data, analyze loss probabilities, scale…