Credit ratings
Credit portfolio stress testing using transition matrixes
In this paper, the authors propose a new methodology for modeling credit transition probability matrixes (TPMs) using macroeconomic factors.
AIIB risk chief on steering China’s World Bank rival
Martin Kimmig on the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank’s challenge of overcoming patchy credit data
Competing against Sifis ‘leads to higher risks’
But research finds weaker implied sovereign support reduces impact on non-Sifi competitors
Credit data: zeroing in on supply chain risk
Data highlights the risks posed by economic protectionism, writes David Carruthers of Credit Benchmark
Credit data: Trump tax cuts have not hurt US states
Tax package is double-edged sword for US states, but credit has strengthened over past year
Bitcoin futures growth could prompt bank ratings downgrades
Fitch, S&P, Moody’s contemplate impact of bitcoin futures on credit ratings
Credit data: firms with fewer well-paid women are riskier
Gender pay gap disclosures could be a proxy for credit risk, writes David Carruthers of Credit Benchmark
Credit data: a tough year for South African financials
Default risk rose steadily for 36 firms during Zuma’s final months of rule, writes Credit Benchmark’s David Carruthers
Credit data: the Trump effect on PDs
The war on coal is over, according to the US president – and the effect can be seen in banks' default estimates
Issuer bias in corporate ratings toward financially constrained firms
This paper considers whether the rating agency attempts to mitigate the feedback effect through its rating actions. Using Moody’s issuer ratings over 1982–2009, the paper shows that firms with greater external financing constraints are less likely to be…
Banks discount legacy swaps as ring-fencing looms
Expectation of higher funding costs post ring-fencing pushes UK banks to offload some trades faster
Reliability and agreement of credit ratings in the Mexican fixed-income market
This paper borrows concepts from measurement, test and psychometric theories to explore the issue of credit ratings in the Mexican corporate bond market.
Monthly credit data review: PDs imply Brexit stress
Default risk for group of UK corporates has risen 11% over the past year
Monthly credit data review: new-tech scepticism
David Carruthers of Credit Benchmark looks at the most recent trends in bank-sourced credit data
Monthly credit data review: gloomier than spreads suggest
David Carruthers of Credit Benchmark looks at banks’ credit risk data
EU banks fear fresh blow on Basel credit risk capital rules
Possible revision to standardised approach would favour US banks for corporate exposures
Rating aggregation flawed, but better than nothing, researchers say
New research finds errors still substantial even after combining ratings
Credit veteran tackles opacity in peer-to-peer lending
PeerIQ CEO Ram Ahluwalia shines a light on the world of peer-to-peer securitisation
Markets losing faith in STS securitisation plans
Participants consider issuing lookalike deals without the risk of regulatory penalties