Technical paper
A simple approximation for the no-arbitrage drifts in Libor market model–SABR-family interest-rate models
This paper presents a simple approximation for the noarbitrage drifts that appear in Libor market model SABR-family term structure models.
CVA and FVA with liability-side pricing
Wujiang Lou calculates CVA and FVA abiding by the law of one price
Cutting Edge: Co-simulation of risk factors in power markets
A simple but realistic model to co-simulate the time series of temperature, electricity load and prices is proposed
Cutting edge introduction: Adjoints - maintaining the legacy
Quants at UBS show how to speed up the calculation of sensitivities without tearing up legacy code
American options: time-critical pricing
Time constraints can be binding for ‘heavy’ Monte Carlo calculations of risk analytics – value-at-risk, potential future exposure, credit valuation adjustment – in intraday risk monitoring, so fast approximations are sometimes preferred. Vladislav…
Greeks with continuous adjoints: fast to code, fast to run
Marzio Sala and Vincent Thiery show the derivation of the continuous adjoint problem for PDEs
Indexing multi-asset solutions
This paper explores the potential role of multi-asset solutions in the indexing landscape as well as challenges in constructing multi-asset indexes
Commodity value-at-risk modeling: comparing RiskMetrics, historic simulation and quantile regression
The authors of this paper investigate the risk modeling of commodities. They note that return distributions differ widely across different commodities, both in terms of tail fatness and skewness.
Exploring shipping inefficiencies in global liquified natural gas trade patterns
The authors examine GPS-communicated data on liquefied natural gas (LNG) tanker movements between January 2011 and August 2012 to determine the possible drivers of apparently inefficient shipping routes from producing to consuming countries.
A combined regime-switching and Black–Litterman model for optimal asset allocation
The authors of this paper aim to test empirically the performance of several optimization algorithms that exist in the literature and then compare them, in both a single-regime market and a two-regime market.
Cave quid optes: waterfalls and central counterparty capital
This paper explores the lines of defense of a central counterparty. The author examines the lines of defence ("the waterfall") of a central counterparty (CCP) inter alia in the context of the requirements set by the Principles for Financial Market…
Communities and driver nodes in the TARGET2 payment system
This paper first describes T2 by means of classic network measures. Then, it applies novel methods developed in network theory to uncover two additional features of T2: driver nodes and communities.
Stress testing and modeling of rating migration under the Vasicek model framework: empirical approaches and technical implementation
This paper is concerned with stress testing the Vasicek model by extending the correlation structure for nondefault ratings. Two models are proposed.
Are world natural gas markets moving toward integration? Evidence from the Henry Hub and National Balancing Point forward curves
The authors of this paper investigate whether the US and UK gas markets are moving toward integration. As well as looking at the cointegration of the Henry Hub and National Balancing Point indexes, the authors also introduce the novel concept of…
A dynamic approach to intraday liquidity needs
This paper studies the intraday liquidity needs of systemically important entities using simulations of the various Colombian financial market infrastructures (FMIs). The paper shows that if liquidity in another FMI (based on the proprietary positions of…
Transmission of shocks in the integrated accounting framework
This paper develops a framework based on integrated national accounting data that aims to capture linkages between different sectors of the economy. The resulting framework provides a useful platform for static policy simulations and shock transmission…
Backtesting Solvency II value-at-risk models using a rolling horizon
The author of this paper performs an analysis on a review of the equity stress parameter for Dutch pension funds.
Monitoring IT operational risks across US capital markets
This paper suggests an approach for assessing IT risk through an incident-based method for monitoring operational IT risk across an extended enterprise based on the ISACA Risk IT framework.
The global network of payment flows
This paper considers a network of cross-border SWIFT message flows where nodes are the countries in which the sending and receiving banks are domiciled. The authors analyze how the payment flows reflect or predict various aspects of the real economies.
Quant ideas: Do we need realistic models?
Realistic models not necessarily a prerequisite for successful risk management
Granger-causal nonlinear financial networks
This paper aims to quantify cascades of price movements in financial markets. It considers nonlinear lead-lag effects with stocks in the S&P 100 as nodes, and it also looks at directed links between the stocks identified through Granger causality. The…
Biased benchmarks
The authors of this paper contend that recent evidence indicates that benchmarks have, over the last eleven years, exaggerated default risk for nonfinancial corporate entities.
Price determinants in the German intraday market for electricity: an empirical analysis
This paper looks at hourly electricity prices, specifically in the German intraday market and is one of the first German studies to develop significant intraday estimates of the driving factors, as distinct from day-ahead modeling.
Cutting Edge introduction: Creative stress testing
New stress-testing method offers a break from decades-old traditio