Technical paper
Optimal hedge ratios based on Markov-switching dynamic copula models
In this paper, the authors combine MS dynamic copulas with the skewed t SV model to study the optimal hedge ratios of portfolios.
A review of the fundamentals of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book II: asymmetries, anomalies, and simple remedies
This paper highlights some anomalies and asymmetries in the new market risk paradigm of the Fundamental Review of the Trading Book (FRTB) framework.
Equity market impact modeling: an empirical analysis for the Chinese market
This paper discusses and derives the extremum of the expectation of permanent impact and realized impact by constructing several special trading trajectories in the Chinese market.
Default contagion among credit modalities: evidence from Brazilian data
The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of defaulting on one personal credit modality on future defaults on other modalities. Using Brazilian microdata, the authors run a logistic regression to estimate the probability of default on a given credit…
Statistical analysis of photovoltaic and wind power generation
The author presents a comparison between maximal and daily average production of photovoltaic and wind energy based on a transmission system operator in Germany using statistical analysis with different seasonality functions.
Operational risk: a forgotten case study
This paper is a historical case study of the GAS scandal and is the first to analyze it from the perspective of operational risk.
New backtests for unconditional coverage of expected shortfall
In this paper, the authors present a new backtest for the unconditional coverage property of expected shortfall.
Multifactor granularity adjustments for market and counterparty risks
In this paper, the authors propose several flexible families of models to manage the market and/or the counterparty risk of portfolios of financial assets.
Chaotic behavior in financial market volatility
In this paper, the authors present a robust method for the detection of chaos based on the Lyapunov exponent, which is consistent even for noisy and finite scalar time series.
Equity modelling with local stochastic volatility and stochastic discrete dividends
SocGen quants calibrate local stochastic volatility models with stochastic dividends
Forecasting corporate defaults in the German stock market
In this paper, the authors estimate and test several default risk models using new and unique data on corporate defaults in the German stock market.
BV–VPIN: Measuring the impact of order flow toxicity and liquidity on international equity markets
The authors analyze the impact of different values of the VBS and sample size applied as inputs in a BV–VPIN model based on the US market in order to ascertain the optimal criteria for application across all other countries in our data set.
The swap market model with local stochastic volatility
An easy to calibrate and accurate swap market model is proposed
CVA pricing for commodities with WWR
A calculation of CVA integrating a commodity futures exposure with probability of an event under WWR and credit downgrades
Improving the Brazilian electricity market: how to replace the centralized dispatch by decentralized market-based bidding
This paper proposes replacing the Energy Reallocation Mechanism with a bid- based short-term market called the virtual reservoir model.
The Iberian electricity market: analysis of the risk premium in an illiquid market
This paper analyzes the risk premium in the base-load monthly futures contracts traded on the Iberian electricity market (MIBEL) between July 1, 2006 and March 31, 2017.
An analysis of intraday market response to crude oil inventory shocks
This paper investigates the intraday market activity of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures around the release of the US Energy Intelligence Agency (EIA) report, looking at how prices respond to inventory shocks.
Estimation window strategies for value-at-risk and expected shortfall forecasting
This paper analyzes the impact of different estimation window strategies, including structural breaks and forecast combinations, on forecasting common risk measures such as VaR and ES.
Risk averse fractional trading using the current drawdown
In this paper, the fractional trading ansatz of money management, also called growth optimal trading, is reconsidered. Special attention is paid to the chance and risk parts of the goal function for the related optimization problem.
Shrunk volatility value-at-risk: an application on US balanced portfolios
In this paper, the authors adopt a new method of predicting VaR, to estimate balanced portfolios’ VaR.
Evaluating the risk performance of online peer-to-peer lending platforms in China
The objective of this paper is to select effective risk indicators and thus establish a risk index system of P2P platforms so as to evaluate the risk performance of these platforms in China.