Technical paper
Converting a covariance matrix from local currencies to a common currency
The authors put forward a simple means to translate a covariance matrix estimated in local currencies into a covariance matrix expressed in a common currency.
Analyzing credit risk model problems through natural language processing-based clustering and machine learning: insights from validation reports
The authors use clustering and machine learning techniques to analyze validation reports, providing insights to the development, implementation and maintenance of credit risk models.
Machine learning prediction of loss given default in government-sponsored enterprise residential mortgages
The authors apply machine learning techniques to Loss Given Default estimation, identifying key variables in LGD prediction and evaluating the performance of various models.
Forecasting India’s foreign trade dynamics: evaluation of alternative forecasting models in the post-pandemic period
The authors aim to determine how India's foreign trade will change following Covid-19 and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, comparing several forecasting models and identifying that which performs best.
Backtesting correlated quantities
A technique to decorrelate samples and reach higher discriminatory power is presented
Forecasting the Volatility Index with a realized measure, volatility components and dynamic jumps
The authors put forward the REGARCH-2C-Jump model to forecast VIX, with results suggesting that this model can outperform other models in VIX forecasting.
Pricing high-dimensional Bermudan options using deep learning and higher-order weak approximation
The authors propose a deep-learning-based algorithm for high-dimensional Bermudan option pricing with the novel feature of discretizing the interval between early-exercise dates using a higher-order weak approximation of stochastic differential equations.
Clustering market regimes using the Wasserstein distance
The authors apply Wasserstein distance and barycenter to the k-means clustering algorithm, validating their proposed method both qualitatively and quantitatively.
An iterative copula method for probability density estimation
This paper puts forward a technique with which to reconstruct a probability density function from an n-dimensional probability distribution sample and provide a theoretical justification for the proposed method.
A hard exit threshold strategy for market-makers
A closed-form solution to derive optimal stop-loss and profit-taking levels is presented
The impact of deterioration in rating-model discriminatory power on expected losses
The authors propose a means to estimate the effects on a portfolio’s expected credit loss created by underwriting model risks.
Consumer credit card payment dynamics over the economic cycle
This papers uses data from 1.8 million credit card accounts to investigate how consumers revolve credit card debt and the impact of this on default risk.
Unaligned exchange traded funds: risk-adjusted performance and market-timing skills
The authors compare the performance of unaligned exchange-traded funds with US and global equities, finding a significant positive correlation in monthly returns.
Kernel-based estimation of spectral risk measures
The authors put forward a kernel-based estimator for spectral risk measures and compare its performance with existing SRM estimators.
Analyzing market sentiment based on the option-implied distribution of stock returns
The authors propose a means to assess market sentiment using the option-implied distribution of stock returns generated from option data, allowing for efficient optimization of complex portfolios.
Delving into the investment psyche: investigating the determinants influencing individual investors’ decision-making
The authors investigate five cognitive biases and how they impact investment decisions, using data from 400 investors to determine which factors are significant factors in the making of investment decisions.
Credit portfolio modeling and pricing using the Poisson binomial distribution
The authors extend the Poisson binomial distribution by integrating correlation and dependence between events, improving model validation and the capture of complex events.
Formulations to select assets for constructing sparse index tracking portfolios
The authors put forward methods to chose assets for sparse index tracking portfolios and demonstrate the tracking performance with numerical examples.
Financial industry adoption of distributed ledger technologies: implications for central bank money settlement
The authors investigate the Eurosystem's exploring of central bank money settlement through distributed ledger technology and look forward to potential next steps.
The market liquidity of interest rate swaps
The authors investigate dynamics and drivers of market liquidity in Euribor interest rate swaps, constructing seven liquidity swaps using data from centrally cleared trades.
Correlation breakdowns, spread positions and central counterparty margin models
The authors investigate correlation behavior during adverse market conditions and the potential impact on CCP margins, finding that such breakdowns appear to be more common than expected.
Pricing and optimization of sidecar and collateralized reinsurance portfolios with stochastic programming
This papers investigates problems in pricing and optimizing sidecar and collateralized reinsurance portfolios, employing a stochastic programming approach to solve these problems.
Random survival forests and Cox regression in loss given default estimation
The authors put forward a loss given default model which incorporates the survival process and illustrate their approach with real mortgage data.
How is risk culture conceptualized in organizations? The pan-industry risk culture (PIRC) model
This paper puts forward a pan-industry risk culture as a framework through which to proactively manage risk culture.