Original research
Estimating future value-at-risk from value samples, and applications to future initial margin
This paper discusses several methods to estimate fVaR or margin requirements and their expected time evolution, from simple options to more complex interest swaps.
Regularization effect on model calibration
This paper compares two methods to calibrate two popular models that are widely used for stochastic volatility modeling (ie, the SABR and Heston models) with the time series of options written on the Nasdaq 100 index to examine the regularization effect…
How to build a risk factor model for non-life insurance risk
In this paper the authors present a dependence model for non-life insurance risk based on risk factors, analogous to those generally used for life insurance or asset risk.
A structural credit risk model based on purchase order information
This paper proposes a credit risk model based on purchase order information to address the deficiencies of monitoring methods that use only financial statements.
Bank-sourced transition matrixes: are banks’ internal credit risk estimates Markovian?
This study explores banks’ internal credit risk estimates and the associated banksourced transition matrixes.
A cost–benefit analysis of anti-procyclicality: analyzing approaches to procyclicality reduction in central counterparty initial margin models
In this paper, the authors suggest how margin setters and policy makers might measure procyclicality and target particular levels of it by recalibrating parameters in a margin model to reduce its procyclicality or by applying an anti-procyclicality tool.
What drives Bitcoin fees? Using SegWit to assess Bitcoin’s long-run sustainability
In this paper the authors use block-level data from the Bitcoin blockchain to estimate the impact of congestion and the US dollar price on fee rates.
Are there multiple independent risk anomalies in the cross section of stock returns?
Using multivariate portfolio sorts, firm-level cross-sectional regressions and spanning tests, this paper shows that, in the cross section of stock returns, most commonly used risk measures in academia and in practice are separate return predictors with…
Ruin problems in a discrete risk model in a Markovian environment
This paper finds that the derivations in a previous paper by Yang et al (2019) are erroneous, and analyzes the risk model model correctly using the matrix analytic method.
Covid-19 and the credit cycle: 2020 revisited and 2021 outlook
This study continues the author’s examination and forecasts as to the impact of Covid-19 on the US credit cycle after one and a half years since the pandemic first began.
Customer churn prediction for commercial banks using customer-value-weighted machine learning models
In this paper the authors propose a framework to address the issue of customer churn prediction, and they quantify customer values with the use of an improved customer value model.
Test for fractional degree stochastic dominance with applications to stock preferences for China and the United States
This paper develops the test statistics for fractional degree stochastic dominance and introduces a bootstrap method for determining the critical values of the tests.
Central counterparty capital and nondefault losses
This paper analyses the components of central counterparty (CCP) capital requirements and makes several observations on the potential for loss absorption.
Probabilistic machine learning for local volatility
In this paper, the authors propose to approach the calibration problem of local volatility with Bayesian statistics to infer a conditional distribution over functions given observed data.
Theory for optimizing capacitated commodity storage with case studies in natural gas
In this paper the author's develop theoretical concepts of optimal injecting and withdrawing for a capacitated commodity storage and give case studies in natural gas.
Does economic policy uncertainty exacerbate corporate financial distress risk?
This paper adds to the literature on factors driving distress risk and the economic consequences of economic policy uncertainty, and it provides a basis for enterprises to respond to changes in policies.
Forecasting volatility and market returns using the CBOE Volatility Index and its options
This paper examines the CBOE VIX, the VIX options’ implied volatility and the smirks associated with these options.
Incorporating small-sample defaults history in loss given default models
This paper proposes a methodology for estimating loss given default (LGD) that accounts for small default sample sizes.
Agency problems in multinational banks: does parent complexity affect the risk-taking of subsidiaries?
This paper empirically reviews the relationship between the geographical complexity of parent-groups and the risk-taking behavior of subsidiaries using a panel of data for Polish domestically owned and foreign-owned banks covering the years 2008–17.
Calibration of rating grades to point-in-time and through-the-cycle levels of probability of default
The paper argues for the need for and importance of the dual calibration of a probability of default (PD) model (ie, calibration to both point-in-time and through-the-cycle PD levels.)
Rainbows and transforms: semi-analytic formulas
In this paper the authors show how the techniques introduced by Hurd and Zhou in 2010 can be used to derive a pricing framework for rainbow options by using the joint characteristic function of the logarithm of the underlying assets.
Branching diffusions with jumps, and valuation with systemic counterparties
This paper extends the branching diffusion Monte Carlo method of Henry-Labordère et al to the case of parabolic partial differential equations with mixed local–nonlocal analytic nonlinearities.
Extreme value theory for operational risk in insurance: a case study
This study aims to test the sufficiency of the solvency capital requirement approach for calculating operational risk using the standard formula as defined in Solvency II.