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Ice eyes year-end launch for Treasury clearing service
Third entrant expects Q2 comment period for new access models that address ‘done-away’ accounting hurdle
Hedging playbook goes ‘out the window’ as Trump tariffs slam markets
Dispersion, put spreads and VKOs paid off as stocks plunged, but outlook remains wildly uncertain
Tariffs volatility prompts rush to re-hedge EUR/USD options books
Banks left scrambling to buy vol as spot surged beyond expectations
Risk data
CFTC’s Doge-inspired drive to enforcement may fall short
Lawyers doubt guidance on rewards for self-reporting goes far enough
JPM leads record STWF surge at US G-Sibs
Five banks hit new highs in Q4, as increased reliance weighs on systemic risk scores
Risk.net’s top 10 investment risks for 2025
Here’s what investors said about trade wars back in January
A global trade war ranked third and a stock market crash fourth in Risk.net’s list of top investment risks, earlier this year. Some described how US tariffs would lead to “bimodal” outcomes — slowing growth on one hand, but with the chance of positive effects if targeted countries capitulate. Participants worried about stock market panic in the face of new risks. “Investor confidence is going to evaporate,” predicted one.
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Market turmoil
Credit markets brace for Trump tariffs fallout
Traders have largely shrugged off the threat of global trade wars, but worries remain about economic weakness
Hedge funds flock to hybrids to trade macro uncertainty
Firms repurpose structure made popular by Trump trades last year
EU debt wave raises dealer capacity concerns
Ongoing QT and upcoming defence spending piles pressure on bank balance sheet supply, say dealers
Shifting credit markets could push SRT pricing wider
Rising volatility may force issuers to adjust pricing in line with broader credit spread trends
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JPM leads record STWF surge at US G-Sibs
Five banks hit new highs in Q4, as increased reliance weighs on systemic risk scores
Counterparty Radar
Matchmaking and benchmarking for OTC derivatives
Counterparty Radar is based on position data from around 20,000 US mutual funds and ETFs, rolled up to the manager level – it shows the OTC derivatives they have on their books, and who they traded them with, providing unique insights into an important market segment. More info
BlackRock bucks trend in shrinking IRS market for Ucits
Counterparty Radar: Pimco boosts pay-fixed book by $27.5 billion in H1 2024
Bank regulation
Can Europe’s FRTB refurb bring banks back to Club IMA?
Softening the NMRF regime permanently might have the most impact, but the output floor still hurts
FRTB may bite harder for Europe’s CVA modellers
Farther reach of advanced approach and lighter load on total requirements mean limited takeaways from Canada and Japan’s implementation
UBS takes standardised approach for FRTB – for now
Swiss bank is one of the largest to drop internal models; sources say it could switch later
CCAR methodology may give first glimpse of Fed’s transparency drive
Industry calls for more details on Global Market Shock and new private equity treatment
For US Treasury algos, dealers get with the program
Four banks now offer execution algos on Bloomberg, with plans to go further, faster
Clearing
No need for repo clearing ‘cannon’ in Europe, says industry
Observers question rationale for a clearing mandate, calling for clearer incentives
NSCC liquidity shortfalls raise T+1 concerns
Lagging FX settlement processes could become a problem for clearing houses
Basis traders mull UST self-clearing as response to SEC mandate
Inter-affiliate exemption requested by hedge funds could ease shortage of clearing capacity
CCP models vulnerable to Trump risk
Volatility of ‘will he, won’t he’ tariff strategy could confound clearing house risk models
Op risk benchmarking
Our new research service compares op risk practices at financial institutions – from staffing to AI safeguards, key controls to board reporting packs.
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