Recession
Capital One, Discover loan portfolios hardest hit in Fed stress test
Simulated losses wipe out more than 1/6th of respective exposures
Can CRE credit risk models cope with hybrid working?
As US office use changes, modellers deploy judgement overlays and alternative data to keep up
Can machine learning help predict recessions? Not really
Artificial intelligence models stumble on noisy data and lack of interpretability
Do all roads lead to multi-scenario Fed stress tests?
This year’s CCAR faced criticism for underweighting the risk of higher-for-longer inflation
The AOCI elephant in the DFAST room
After March’s banking crisis, Fed stress tests should adopt harsher and wider ranging rate scenarios
DFAST mortgage loss rate doubles 2022 figure
At $6.9bn, JP Morgan would bear brunt of losses, according to Fed projections
Unrealised losses down but not out in latest DFAST
Bank of America would emerge from Fed’s scenario with $22 billion net AOCI gain
Risk.net’s top 10 investment risks for 2023
Geopolitical frictions, sticky inflation and a hard landing are among the hazards cited by investors
Capital One’s loan charge-offs surge 54% in Q4
Amount of credit cards and consumer loans getting written off approaches pre-pandemic levels
Policy-makers must keep the heat on climate transition
As the financial industry shows signs of climate fatigue, regulators need to pick up the slack
HSBC’s quarterly UK provisions rose 111% in Q3
Uncertainty around interest rates and political stability reflected in model overlays
Top US banks set aside $6bn for credit losses in Q3
Quarterly provisions highest in two years
US Bank cautions on regulators’ TLAC proposal
Risk USA: CRO also says bank is readying credit risk models and business plans for recession
Global banks’ CET1 surplus hit 2.5-year high in 2021
Lenders in the Americas had smaller share of capital available for use than European peers
Some euro banks modelled lower mortgage risk in H1
Italian and Belgian lenders reported steepest drops in risk density despite recessionary threat
Europe’s regulators play ‘time the downturn’ with CCyB
Indicators justify hikes in countercyclical capital buffer, but shock-driven recession looms large
Europe’s countercyclical buffers buck recession trends
Almost half of EBU’s members have set out CCyB hikes; five plan two or more before mid-2023
EU banks add overlays as crises evade modelling
Lenders buttress provisions against unpredictable fallout from Russia's invasion of Ukraine
Looming slowdown casts doubt on countercyclical capital
Confusion over use of buffers makes bankers wonder if concept will ever be successful
BoE’s planned procyclical capital hike bewilders banks
Some doubt regulator will go through with buffer hike while forecasting recession
Using correlation to model op risk losses may be unsafe – study
Techniques for linking economic factors and bank losses produce varying – and sometimes contradictory – results