Expected loss
Using option prices to trade the underlying asset
The authors propose strategies with which to trade the underlying assets of options based on large data sets generated by options trading.
Pricing options using expected profit and loss measures
The authors investigate the pricing of options using an EP-EL approach, finding that this methodology generates large amounts of useful information for option traders.
Some EU banks keep underprovisioning for ECLs
Divergences between accounting and regulatory markdowns remains high at some top lenders
Portfolio allocation based on expected profit and loss measures
The authors formulate the portfolio allocation problem from a trading point of view, allowing both long and short positions and taking trading and interest rate costs into account.
EU banks’ credit risk estimates stabilised at year-end
Weighted average corporate borrower PD across countries climbed to 2.15%
IFRS 9 relief added £8bn to UK banks’ capital buffers in 2020
Lloyds’ CET1 ratio reaped a 120bp benefit
Enhanced scrutiny of Covid loans at CaixaBank leads to €321m charge
Stock of ‘stage two’ loans increased 48%
From incurred loss to current expected credit loss: a forensic analysis of the allowance for loan losses in unconditionally cancelable credit card portfolios
The authors analyze the performance of the CECL framework under plausible assumptions about allocations of future payments to existing credit card loans, a key implementation element.
Buffer stops? Why banks haven’t used Covid capital relief
Amid weak credit demand, banks haven’t availed themselves of capital buffers, but they still might
Weak EU banks may lowball Covid loan losses – ECB
Low-profitability banks provision less than their more flush counterparts
EU loans under Covid moratoria have high credit risk – EBA
Banks in Austria, Iceland, Romania and Slovakia especially vulnerable, data shows
IFRS 9 product of the year: AxiomSL
Asia Risk Technology Awards 2020
A FAVAR modeling approach to credit risk stress testing and its application to the Hong Kong banking industry
In this paper, a credit risk stress testing model based on the factor-augmented vector autoregressive (FAVAR) approach is proposed to project credit risk loss under stressed scenarios.
Souring loans piled up at EU banks in Q2
Share of loans that have declined in creditworthiness made up 8.2% of lenders’ totals
EU banks’ credit risk estimates deteriorated in Q2
Weighted average corporate borrower PD across countries climbed to 2.04%
Covid credit outlooks for UK banks vary
Standard Chartered and HSBC have worst downside outlooks relative to their own base cases
Systemic eurozone bank provisions hit €11bn in Q2
ING sees loan-loss charge double in Q2
EU banks’ Q1 credit risk estimates show little Covid effect
Probability of defaults for retail exposures edged up only slightly quarter-on-quarter
Corporate, SME loans to take brunt of Covid shock, say EU banks
Though credit outlook has darkened, banks expect to increase lending overall
Dark Covid outlook pumps up Lloyds’ loan-loss reserves
Base case for 2020 now projects UK GDP to drop 10%
Coronavirus crisis sours €8bn of Santander’s loans
Loans moved into IFRS 9 stage two to reflect significant increase in credit risks