Realised volatility
Dealers bruised by surprise renminbi vol surge
Rush to re-hedge USD/CNH exotics left banks in grip of painful short gamma squeeze
‘Fear gauge’ within expectations, some say
Several options specialists dismiss claims that structured products are distorting the Vix
Infrequent MtM reduces neither value-at-risk nor backtesting exceptions
Frequency of repricing impacts volatility and correlation measures
FX options traders rethink vol drivers amid macro uncertainty
Market-makers believe more and more events will influence options pricing as political risk bubbles up during 2024
The realized local volatility surface
The authors put forward a Bayesian nonparametric estimation method which reconstructs a counterfactual generalized Wiener measure from historical price data.
The haves and the ‘have bots’: can AI give vol forecasters an edge?
Firms look to machine learning and natural language processing to gain advantage over peers
The real deal: the challenge of real interest rates
Understanding real interest rate dynamics as inflation transitions is vital, say Crédit Agricole traders
Forecasting the realized volatility of stock markets with financial stress
This paper investigates the impact of financial stress on the predictability of the realized volatility of five stock markets
‘Perfect’ VKO trades knock the smile off vol
Dealer hedging of options which profit from ‘spot down, vol down’ may have amplified rare dynamic
How Citi is handling topsy-turvy rates markets
Talking Heads 2022: Rate hikes and inflation have forced a rethink of the US bank’s hedging strategies
Index vol has been a poor hedge for equity rout, traders say
Single stock ‘micro’ hedges have offered more protection in this year’s selloff
Lack of supply keeps short-end euro rates vol high
Hedge funds and corporates rush to hedge potential rises in euro interest rates – but sellers aren’t there, say traders
Modeling realized volatility with implied volatility for the EUR/GBP exchange rate
This paper concerns the application of implied volatility in modeling realized volatility in the daily, weekly and monthly horizon using high-frequency data for the EUR/GBP exchange rate.
Quants tout alternative carry trades for the ‘new normal’
Low rates and flatlining yield curves leave investors seeking carry in swaps and swaptions
Dispersion trades suffer in coronavirus selloff
Losses put at roughly $150m – even before markets tanked on March 9
Who killed FX volatility?
Beyond central bank policy, traders see a range of hidden structural factors at work
Bank disruptors: Crédit Ag taps AI to lure swaptions business
Machine learning model predicts client demand with high accuracy, giving traders an edge in pricing
Volatility becalmed, trade in forex options plummets
With central banks in tandem on policy, market churn has lessened considerably, and trading as well
Engle: rise in geopolitical risks may be overestimated
Risk USA: Nobel laureate’s new ‘Geovol’ model suggests geopolitical risk no higher than during past 20 years
Dynamic volatility management: from conditional volatility to realized volatility
In this paper, the authors present a multiperiod portfolio management strategy that can be used to directly manage the realized volatility over a long time horizon.
Recursive estimation of the exponentially weighted moving average model
The aim of this paper is twofold: (i) to introduce two recursive estimation algorithms suitable for the EWMA process that are applicable for routine volatility predictions, and (ii) to investigate their prediction ability by comparing them with other…