Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Joaquin Narro and Monica Caamano
Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Introduction
The Energy Supply and Demand Conundrum
A Brief History of Energy Markets
Systematic Trading in Energy Markets
The Trading Edge
Defining Trading Expectations
Exploring Technical Modelling in Idiosyncratic Energy Markets
Exploring Fundamental Modelling
Introducing Cycle Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations
Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Estimating Model Lifetime
Optimising Performance and Risk
Pitfalls in Systematic Model Development
Model Production
Portfolio Construction
Incorporating Human Behaviour
References
We have explored several aspects of systematising models, including practical examples, focusing on broad defining lines that will help the reader develop their own systematic models. We are now ready to dig further into the detail by investigating data-related model boundaries and assumptions.
In general, data can be sorted into technical (price) and fundamental data. Although the range of data-related issues is very extensive, we will focus on practical aspects associated with data quality and availability, exploring the practicalities of using weather data and settlement data as two specific energy-related concerns, starting with the establishment of a data quality framework.
THE NEED FOR A DATA QUALITY FRAMEWORK
In any circumstances, whether dealing with price or fundamental data, we would suggest using a framework for evaluating data quality that monitors completeness, credibility, precision and continuity (Cichy and Rass, 2019).
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Completeness: This describes the percentage of data available. For example, if we are looking at daily settlement prices, we need to know how many days of data are missing from the time series.
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Credibility: This
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