A Brief History of Energy Markets
Joaquin Narro and Monica Caamano
A Brief History of Energy Markets
Introduction
The Energy Supply and Demand Conundrum
A Brief History of Energy Markets
Systematic Trading in Energy Markets
The Trading Edge
Defining Trading Expectations
Exploring Technical Modelling in Idiosyncratic Energy Markets
Exploring Fundamental Modelling
Introducing Cycle Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations
Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Estimating Model Lifetime
Optimising Performance and Risk
Pitfalls in Systematic Model Development
Model Production
Portfolio Construction
Incorporating Human Behaviour
References
The establishment of organised energy markets followed the commoditisation of energy sources, including associated carbon emissions, through non-tangible environmental allowances. The ultimate goal of commoditisation was to manage the price risk associated with energy commodities, which was achieved with the contract standardisation of the underlying commodities, designed to help serve the needs of the stakeholders of the energy complex.
There has always been price risk associated with any commercial exchange of commodities. However, several historical milestones are intrinsically associated with both the emergence of some organised energy markets and the need to manage the associated price risks. Although energy commodities have been physically traded for centuries (think of coal or wood), it was not until the latter part of the 20th Century that the need to standardise contracts and manage risk became a truly global task, as demonstrated by the aftermath of the 1970s oil crisis. This crisis was pivotal to satisfying the world’s needs for standardisation and risk management.
THE 1970s OIL CRISIS
We intuitively identify energy with crude oil. This naturally occurring
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