Introduction
Joaquin Narro and Monica Caamano
Introduction
Introduction
The Energy Supply and Demand Conundrum
A Brief History of Energy Markets
Systematic Trading in Energy Markets
The Trading Edge
Defining Trading Expectations
Exploring Technical Modelling in Idiosyncratic Energy Markets
Exploring Fundamental Modelling
Introducing Cycle Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations
Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Estimating Model Lifetime
Optimising Performance and Risk
Pitfalls in Systematic Model Development
Model Production
Portfolio Construction
Incorporating Human Behaviour
References
Dislocations in energy markets create price differences that can be monetised by arbitrage. Nowadays good quality data is available to all for analysis, and for turning into models that can capture profits. The ability to artfully sieve through the data and uncover the model gems within it can provide the trader with an edge over other market participants. In this book, we will describe the benefits of implementing systematic models and lead the reader through several systematic models based on trading opportunities that have been available in the energy markets.
Systematic Trading in Energy Markets is written with the manager, the trader and the analyst in mind, both private and institutional, as an implementation guide to building systematic trading models. The subject is approached from a practical perspective, bridging the gap between theoretical modelling and the intricacies of the energy markets. The intention is that the reader will easily identify with the many practical aspects that we introduce, and will be able to adapt their existing model stock, or build new models, based on our guidelines. We encourage the reader to understand and maximise their edge in energy
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