Japan crisis proves value of multivariate scenarios

Simple, singular scenarios don't provide enough insight says RiskBusiness's Finlay

Japan’s devastating earthquake and the ensuing tsunami, potential nuclear meltdown, radiation leaks and power outages combined to create a nightmare scenario that was difficult to conceive, let alone plan for.

“Assessing simple single variable scenarios by themselves just does not give enough insight into what can happen,” says Mike Finlay, chief executive officer of RiskBusiness International. “Let’s consider the Japanese case. Firstly, the Japanese economy has recently been at best stagnant