A false sense of security

Credit portfolio models often assume that recovery rates are independent of default probabilities. Here, Jon Frye presents empirical evidence showing that such assumptions are wrong. Using US historical default data, he shows that not only are recovery rates sensitive to the economic cycle, but also that they vary more for senior debt than for junior debt categories

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Credit risk & modelling – Special report 2021

This Risk special report provides an insight on the challenges facing banks in measuring and mitigating credit risk in the current environment, and the strategies they are deploying to adapt to a more stringent regulatory approach.

The wild world of credit models

The Covid-19 pandemic has induced a kind of schizophrenia in loan-loss models. When the pandemic hit, banks overprovisioned for credit losses on the assumption that the economy would head south. But when government stimulus packages put wads of cash in…

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