Electoral shifts raise risk of European tipping point

Electoral advances by anti-European parties and vocal criticism by influential voices represent the most serious challenge to the European project in a generation. While a rapid restructuring of the eurozone, or of the union itself, may feel unlikely, risk managers ignore the possibility at their peril, warns David Rowe

My early years as an economic forecaster have made me sceptical about the ability of anyone, especially myself, to predict the timing of political tipping points. That said, structural pressures sometimes build so rapidly that it becomes foolhardy to ignore completely the possibility of a rapid, historic change. Recent events in Europe meet this condition.

In early May, France aligned itself with the southern tier of the eurozone by declaring the dogma of budget austerity was coming to an end –