Cutting Edge: Pure jump models for energy prices

Université de Lausanne’s Roberto Marfè investigates pure jump processes as modelling blocks for the distributions of energy returns under the pricing measure. An easy-to-implement option-implied approach is outlined, which circumvents most of the estimation difficulties found for other models. A subsampling procedure rules out the distortive effects of seasonality. It is demonstrated that Lévy models overperform the jump-diffusion approach and capture the volatility surface

Commodity markets differ from stock and bond markets in several key properties. Supply is determined by production and inventory, with the presence of a quantity risk. Demand is generally inelastic to prices: this is due to essential nature of considered good. The balance of supply and demand can be smoothed by inventories. Non-storability, which uniquely characterises electricity, involves the real-time balancing of supply and demand.

The continuous rebalancing of supply and demand