Models of good behaviour
The development of new models that describe the real dynamics of energy prices have to take into account the behavioural aspects of market players. The problem is how to quantify these aspects. Maria Kielmas reports
Energy price forecasting has always been a hazardous business, but for those in the power sector it must have often seemed like a minus-sum game. Since global market deregulation in the 1990s, one of the biggest growth industries has been the supply of analytical solutions and software to develop ever-more-sophisticated models to illustrate the stochastic behaviour1 of power prices. But none of them predicted the California crisis or last September’s 30% drop in UK wholesale market
Only users who have a paid subscription or are part of a corporate subscription are able to print or copy content.
To access these options, along with all other subscription benefits, please contact info@risk.net or view our subscription options here: http://subscriptions.risk.net/subscribe
You are currently unable to print this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
You are currently unable to copy this content. Please contact info@risk.net to find out more.
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (point 2.4), printing is limited to a single copy.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
Copyright Infopro Digital Limited. All rights reserved.
You may share this content using our article tools. As outlined in our terms and conditions, https://www.infopro-digital.com/terms-and-conditions/subscriptions/ (clause 2.4), an Authorised User may only make one copy of the materials for their own personal use. You must also comply with the restrictions in clause 2.5.
If you would like to purchase additional rights please email info@risk.net
More on Risk management
Markets Technology Awards 2025: Untangling the knots
Vendors jockeying for position in this year’s MTAs, as banks and regulators take aim at counterparty blind spots
An AI-first approach to model risk management
Firms must define their AI risk appetite before trying to manage or model it, says Christophe Rougeaux
BofA sets its sights on US synthetic risk transfer market
New trading initiative has already notched at least three transactions
Op risk data: At Trafigura, a $1 billion miss in Mongolia
Also: Insurance cartels, Santander settlement and TSB’s “woeful” customer treatment. Data by ORX News
Cyber risk can be modelled like credit risk, says Richmond Fed
US supervisors may begin to use historical datasets to assess risk at banks and system-wide
The changing shape of risk
S&P Global Market Intelligence’s head of credit and risk solutions reveals how firms are adjusting their strategies and capabilities to embrace a more holistic view of risk
To liquidity and beyond: new funding strategies for UK pensions and insurance
Prompted by policy shifts and macro events, pension funds and insurance firms are seeking alternative solutions around funding and liquidity
More cleared repo sponsors join Eurex ahead of cross-margining
End of TLTROs for banks and pension fund search for liquidity management tools drives uptake
