Models of good behaviour
The development of new models that describe the real dynamics of energy prices have to take into account the behavioural aspects of market players. The problem is how to quantify these aspects. Maria Kielmas reports
Energy price forecasting has always been a hazardous business, but for those in the power sector it must have often seemed like a minus-sum game. Since global market deregulation in the 1990s, one of the biggest growth industries has been the supply of analytical solutions and software to develop ever-more-sophisticated models to illustrate the stochastic behaviour1 of power prices. But none of them predicted the California crisis or last September’s 30% drop in UK wholesale market
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