Great Expectations
The only constant in predicting the future path of life expectancy has been a regular failure in coming up with the correct answer - but as models and theories on this subject proliferate, Life & Pensions reports on whether there is a uniform answer to the question: "How long will we live?"
"You can keep modelling until you are blue in the face - but at some point you need to take a view on what the likely future development of life expectancy is," - in one sentence, Scott Brown, Norwich Union's head of annuities, takes a machete through the jungle of acronyms and buzzwords that make up the longevity landscape.
Deterministic versus stochastic; trend or cohort effect; P-spline over Lee Carter - modelling life expectancy has proved fecund soil for the growth of academic language, but
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