Looming slowdown casts doubt on countercyclical capital

Confusion over use of buffers makes bankers wonder if concept will ever be successful

If you are reading this now, it’s too late.

The Bank of England is forecasting a recession later this year and early next, as a spike in energy prices squeezes households and businesses alike. Other central banks are less bearish at the moment, but their economies are hardly immune from the shocks caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A weaker economy means worse asset quality for banks. More write-downs could lead to a depletion of capital. Less capital could cause banks to pull on the