Model Production
Joaquin Narro and Monica Caamano
Model Production
Introduction
The Energy Supply and Demand Conundrum
A Brief History of Energy Markets
Systematic Trading in Energy Markets
The Trading Edge
Defining Trading Expectations
Exploring Technical Modelling in Idiosyncratic Energy Markets
Exploring Fundamental Modelling
Introducing Cycle Analysis and Monte Carlo Simulations
Data: Boundaries and Assumptions
Estimating Model Lifetime
Optimising Performance and Risk
Pitfalls in Systematic Model Development
Model Production
Portfolio Construction
Incorporating Human Behaviour
References
Once a model has been developed, it needs to go into production. However, before going into production, there needs to be a step in-between where the model can be assessed under live market conditions for a period, in a size that is big enough to be realistic but small enough not to have a significant impact on performance. This is why we first introduce the model into a testing environment, where the model can be assessed before rolling it out to the production phase once we are satisfied that the model meets the hurdles of the test environment.
Similarly, rules must also be in place to take a model out of the production environment and back into the test environment if necessary (and ultimately out to rest altogether if required). Finally, this chapter will also introduce a few technological concepts in relation to model production and development.
THE TESTING ENVIRONMENT
A testing environment is a live trading environment where a new strategy is first implemented. The purpose of this environment is to gain experience and accumulate a live trading record. Effectively, the testing environment offers the opportunity to validate the assumptions made during the model
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