Deriving consensus ratings of the big three rating agencies

Bettina Grün, Paul Hofmarcher, Kurt Hornik, Christoph Leitner and Christoph Leitner

Abstract

ABSTRACT

This paper introduces a model framework for dynamic credit rating processes. Our framework aggregates ordinal rating information stemming from a variety of rating sources. The dynamic of the consensus rating captures systematic as well as idiosyncratic changes. In addition, our framework allows us to validate the different rating sources by analyzing the mean-variance structure of the rating deviations. In an empirical study for the iTraxx Europe companies rated by the big three external rating agencies we use Bayesian techniques to estimate the consensus ratings for these companies. The advantages are illustrated by comparing our dynamic rating model with a naive benchmark model.