Risk roulette on eurozone scenarios

The European Union and International Monetary Fund agreed a €750 billion emergency loan package in early May, aimed at averting a sovereign default and wider crisis across the eurozone. Nonetheless, banks have been preparing for the worst, stress testing their portfolios against everything from the ejection of a eurozone member to a collapse of the euro. By Duncan Wood

The life of Shakespeare’s Hamlet is underpinned by a single, unwavering certainty – that he will succeed his father on Denmark’s throne. When his uncle takes the crown instead, the young prince is plagued by doubts and possibilities – suddenly, it seems, anything can happen.

Banks now find themselves in a similar situation: the conviction that eurozone governments are risk-free has been overturned, and the world suddenly looks very different. If Greece can default, so can Portugal – maybe even