IEA forecasts too optimistic says Barcap
Supply-side projections in the International Energy Agency's (IEA) Medium-Term Oil Market Report 2009 are "too optimistic" and "will be subject to substantial revisions in time," according to a research report by Costanza Jacazio, commodities analyst at Barclays Capital.
The IEA report forecasts that net production capacity will expand by 4mb/d between 2008 and 2014 with 2.6 million barrels per day (mb/d) of new OPEC natural gas liquids (NGLs) production, 1.7mb/d of OPEC's crude net capacity additions and a net decline of 0.4mb/d in non-OPEC production.
However Barcap says it believes that the profile for non-OPEC production will be subjected to hefty downward revisions. "Higher-than-expected decline rates at mature fields and longer-than expected lead times for
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