Journal of Credit Risk
ISSN:
1744-6619 (print)
1755-9723 (online)
Editor-in-chief: Linda Allen and Jens Hilscher
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Private firm default probabilities via statistical learning theory and utility maximization
Xuelong Zhou, Jinggang Huang, Craig Friedman, Robert Cangemi, Sven Sandow
Abstract
ABSTRACT
We estimate real-world private firm default probabilities over a fixed time horizon. The default probabilities are conditioned on a vector of explanatory variables which include financial ratios, economic indicators and market prices. To estimate our model we apply a recently developed method from statistical learning theory. This method leads to a model that is particularly appropriate for financial market participants, who would use the model to make financial decisions. We compare our model with various benchmark models with respect to a number of performance measures. In all these tests our model outperformed the benchmark models. We discuss possible reasons for this outperformance.
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