Geopolitical risk models not ‘rigorous’ enough, says quant

Joseph Simonian believes game theory and reinforcement learning could improve matters

Geopolitical risk has surged to the top of investors’ agendas this year, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent impact on global supply chains.

That does not mean investors have a rigorous scientific basis for forecasting it. This, at least, is the view of Joseph Simonian, a quant with long experience at the intersection of finance and data science.

Simonian was senior investment strategist at Acadian Asset Management and a director of quant research at Natixis Investment