Trillion-dollar basis trade will keep growing – asset managers

Treasury issuance, credit trades and repo stigma drive rise in futures use

Many dollars

The forces that have propelled the US Treasury basis trade to notional exposures of more than a trillion dollars are only getting stronger, asset managers have said.

Record government issuance has boosted the weight of Treasury bonds in a key index, driving the bond funds that benchmark to that index to use more futures to match duration – a trend that is set to continue as projected issuance balloons. In the basis trade, hedge funds arbitrage price differences between cash bonds and futures.

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