US Treasury yield movements betray deflation danger

Inflation often accompanies the end of the recovery after a crisis, but while US companies may fear high inflation, banks and investors increasingly see deflation as the more serious risk to the US economy.

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On July 1, RBC Capital Markets published the results of a survey of 440 senior executives from major non-financial companies around the world. One question was whether inflation or deflation posed a greater risk to their organisation’s financing decisions and capital budgeting process over the next 12 to 18 months. Sixty-one percent of those surveyed said that an assumption of inflation formed part of their strategy, while just 21% pointed to deflation. Among those polled in the US, almost 64%

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