The lessons of war
The aggressive stance of the White House towards Saddam Hussein is bringing the prospect of armed conflict in Iraq ever closer. Philip Moore looks back at recent wars and asks whether history can offer any clues as to how the markets may react to military action
The chances are that by the time this magazine is distributed, the ante regarding the situation in Iraq will have been upped considerably. How this will impact credit spreads is anybody’s guess, although an analysis of market behaviour in previous wars should offer some clues.
John Butler, bond strategist at Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein in London, who has given this subject more thought than most, warns that such an approach is inevitably full of pitfalls, given that no two wars are alike. But
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