Deciding on a future

A handful of companies are exploring how markets can improve decision-making, while academics are using futures trading to predict influenza outbreaks. Prediction markets have come a long way since the collapse of a controversial Pentagon-funded project in 2003. By Navroz Patel

For the majority of those unfortunate enough to contract influenza, the prognosis, after enduring anywhere from one day to one week of fever, headaches and dizziness, is a full recovery. But, for high-risk groups – including infants, the elderly and the infirm – the flu can be deadly.

Unsurprisingly, public health authorities take outbreaks very seriously. Each week during the influenza season, which runs from September to April and peaks this month, the US government's health agency