Market graphic - European high-yield default rate

Although the markets are pricing in a jump in this year's European speculative-grade default rate to 7.5%, JPMorgan Credit Research predict a more modest rise of 2.5%

The future path of the US economy is the largest unknown affecting all financial markets at the moment. Though the US is not yet in recession, the downside risks have increased substantially over the last month as the service sector has begun to show strains. We continue to believe that healthy corporate balance sheets, foreign demand, an aggressively low fed funds rate environment and the fiscal stimulus package could offset the drags from tighter credit, rising energy prices, falling consumer