Running dry

After unforeseen highs in European corporate bond issuance last year, many arepredicting an about-turn this year, with a cut of 20% or more in top-line issuance. As high redemptions bite, net supply will experience severe shrinkage. Roger Aitken reports

Accurately forecasting corporate bond supply for the year ahead is no mean feat. It involves working out how much debt is due to mature, how much might get bought back early, how much companies will spend on investment and acquisitions, how much money those companies will earn, how interest rates will change, how the economy will change, how all the other economies will change, and so on and so forth. Once guesstimates have been made, it is time to work out the relative importance of all these