Triple-B tie-up
GDP growth in the US and triple-B spread levels have closely mirrored each other for nearly half a century. What factors will influence a continuation of this trend?
Over the past 45 years or so, spreads on triple-B rated US corporate bonds have been closely, although inversely, correlated to the US economy’s growth. As the chart produced by Deutsche Bank shows, the two have been closely tied for the vast majority of the past half-century.
“There is little doubt that US triple-B spreads have been closely correlated with US GDP growth going back to the early 1960s. There has rarely been a significant move wider in triple-B spreads over this period
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