Country and Political Risk
First published:
ISBN: 9781782722175
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Debt Crisis Indicators of Emerging Markets versus Eurozone Economies
Roberto Savona, Marika Vezzoli and Enrico Ciavolino
Preface: Two economists’ views on the bank-sovereign linkage
Introduction
Assessing Country Risk: A Practical Guide
Sovereign Risk: Characteristics, History and a Review of Recent Research
The Arab Spring: Insights for Political Risk Analysis
The Eurozone Crisis: The Forgotten Risks of Private and External Debt
How the Eurozone Crisis Became a Banking Crisis, and the Risk of Japanisation
The Changing Dynamics of Country Risk
Capital Flight as a Political Risk Indicator
Debt Crisis Indicators of Emerging Markets versus Eurozone Economies
How Much Economic Capital Could European Banks Save? The Case for Optimal Sovereign Risk Allocation
Fixing Fundamental Flaws in Probabilistic Country Risk Models
Have We Learned the Country Risk Management Lessons of the 1997 Asian Financial Crisis?
Using Systems Thinking to Enhance Country Risk Assessment
Approaches to the Quantification of Country Risk
Stress Testing Across International Exposures and Activities
As has been pointed out by Reinhart and Rogoff (2013), even after the global financial crisis of 2007–10, the common view within policy circles is that developed countries economies are “completely different animals from their emerging market counterparts”. The reason is because advanced economies can implement countercyclical policy measures more easily. While this observation clearly involves the ex post phase of a crisis, when the objective is stabilisation, one might pose a similar question regarding the ex ante phase of the crisis: prevention. This phase is also important in order to take the right measures to mitigate a financial crisis.
Existing literature on the determinants of debt crises in emerging markets is abundant, and mainly focused on solvency and liquidity risk dimensions, and the willingness to pay the debt. Statistical evidence about the forecasting ability of some leading indicators produced a list of factors that help predict impending debt crises (see, for example, Savona and Vezzoli, 2013, and the references herein).
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- The first type of solvency-based leading indicators include international reserves, capital flows, foreign direct investment
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